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阿裏巴巴2022財年第四季度業績好於預期。全年來看亮點在於營收同比增長19%,中國市場消費者突破10億,阿裏雲13年來首次實現年度盈利,以及螞蟻集團的首次分紅方案等。由於疫情的不可預測性,阿裏巴巴未能給出當前財年的業績指引。
百度今年第一季度的營收和凈利雙雙超出預期,自動駕駛和智能交通在全國各地落地,APP活躍用戶穩健增長。
兩大科技巨頭的的股價飆升帶動中概股集體走強,納斯達克中國金龍指數漲7.57%。HK50和CN50指數今天截止目前為止分別跳升1.60%和3.27%。
HK50
但是,如果仔細觀察會發現阿裏巴巴業績本身其實並沒有那麽出色(營收增速放緩,凈利潤下降),而且未來仍然充滿變數,如疫情對零售消費和供應鏈的沖擊(核心電商業務貢獻了全年營收的87%)、日益激烈的同業競爭、美國對海外上市公司的退市威脅,以及來自監管層的壓力等。政府的確正在加速出臺各項刺激措施,但這需要時間來具體落實並傳導至終端市場。不論是消費者還是投資者,信心的恢復不會是一蹴而就的。
昨天的股價可能更多體現的是一種長期積壓的負面情緒的釋放,畢竟從2020年10月的高點以來阿裏巴巴的股價已經累計下跌了70%。如果能沖破下降趨勢線的壓製(102附近),才有可能真正扭轉長期以來的頹勢。
BABA.US
和阿裏巴巴擁有相似處境的還有其他一些中概股和相關指數。雖然短線仍然處在築底階段,但對長線投資者來說,目前中國資產較低的估值具備一定吸引力。
另外,目前的外部市場環境也有所改善。隨著美聯儲鷹派程度暫時見頂、美股財報季的落幕、以及月底投資組合再平衡的需要,美股正在經歷超跌後的修正行情。
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