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Analysis
美联储拉开了央行超级周的序幕，而欧洲央行周三给自己临时加戏但效果一般。
英国央行周四继续加息25个基点至1.25%，这已经是自去年12月以来的连续第五次加息了。此外，央行还预期英国通胀将在今年10月突破11%，并且已经为未来更“有力”的行动做好了准备。虽然基本符合预期，英镑还是跳升至1.2351。
昨天令人意外的消息是瑞士央行突然宣布了50个基点的加息。这是15年以来的首次加息，而此前最大胆的预期都显示央行最早要到7月才会有所行动。瑞士法郎兑美元大张3%。欧元兑瑞郎录得自2015年取消与欧元挂钩以来的最大单日跌幅，并下探至2个月低点。
EURCHF
瑞士央行1万亿美元的资产负债表上近一半为美元资产，其中美股约2000亿美元。这也就意味着一旦其开启紧缩周期，或将给美元和美股带来额外的压力。
日本央行最近有点忙。空头在本周又一次疯狂抛售日本国债，押注日本央行将放弃或调整收益率曲线控制政策，即不再把10年期债券收益率目标锁定在0.25%。而日本央行则不断加码无限量购买国债来进行应对。这也是日元在过去几个月始终处于贬值通道的原因。
尽管日本的5月通胀同比增速已经来到目标水平上方的2.5%，尽管美国和日本的基准利差越来越大，尽管国债遭到国际投资者的阻击，但日本央行今天还是毅然选择坚守其超级宽松政策，重申将继续以0.25%的固定利率购买10年期国债，成为全球主要央行中仅剩的鸽派。
考虑到日本连续10个月出现贸易逆差且5月逆差数值刷新8年新高，弱势日元或许能提振出口将贸易帐“扭亏为盈”，从这个角度来看日本央行应该不会过于担心。美/日若能守住布林带中轨，短线依旧保持乐观有望再次冲击135关口。
USDJPY
美元指数连续两天回落，显然是受到了多家央行轮番加息和靴子落地后获利了结的影响。但在加息预期和避险属性的双重加持之下，现在很难去看空美元的行情。
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