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Analysis
美聯儲拉開了央行超級周的序幕，而歐洲央行周三給自己臨時加戲但效果一般。
英國央行周四繼續加息25個基點至1.25%，這已經是自去年12月以來的連續第五次加息了。此外，央行還預期英國通脹將在今年10月突破11%，並且已經為未來更「有力」的行動做好了準備。雖然基本符合預期，英鎊還是跳升至1.2351。
昨天令人意外的消息是瑞士央行突然宣布了50個基點的加息。這是15年以來的首次加息，而此前最大膽的預期都顯示央行最早要到7月才會有所行動。瑞士法郎兌美元大張3%。歐元兌瑞郎錄得自2015年取消與歐元掛鉤以來的最大單日跌幅，並下探至2個月低點。
EURCHF
瑞士央行1萬億美元的資產負債表上近一半為美元資產，其中美股約2000億美元。這也就意味著一旦其開啟緊縮周期，或將給美元和美股帶來額外的壓力。
日本央行最近有點忙。空頭在本周又一次瘋狂拋售日本國債，押註日本央行將放棄或調整收益率曲線控製政策，即不再把10年期債券收益率目標鎖定在0.25%。而日本央行則不斷加碼無限量購買國債來進行應對。這也是日元在過去幾個月始終處於貶值通道的原因。
盡管日本的5月通脹同比增速已經來到目標水平上方的2.5%，盡管美國和日本的基準利差越來越大，盡管國債遭到國際投資者的阻擊，但日本央行今天還是毅然選擇堅守其超級寬松政策，重申將繼續以0.25%的固定利率購買10年期國債，成為全球主要央行中僅剩的鴿派。
考慮到日本連續10個月出現貿易逆差且5月逆差數值刷新8年新高，弱勢日元或許能提振出口將貿易帳「扭虧為盈」，從這個角度來看日本央行應該不會過於擔心。美/日若能守住布林帶中軌，短線依舊保持樂觀有望再次沖擊135關口。
USDJPY
美元指數連續兩天回落，顯然是受到了多家央行輪番加息和靴子落地後獲利了結的影響。但在加息預期和避險屬性的雙重加持之下，現在很難去看空美元的行情。
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