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Analysis

US

滴滴上市 — 通過Pepperstone進行股票交易

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
30 June 2021
Share
這可能是今年最大的,也是最受期待的 IPO 之一。

作為越來越多的中國獨角獸“公司(估值達到10億美元以上的初創企業)之一,滴滴是UBER、Grab 和 Ola 等全球網約車公司的主要競爭對手。在正式向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)遞交IPO申請後,滴滴(DIDI)擬於本周在紐約證券交易所掛牌上市。

因為有許多客戶對滴滴的上市感興趣,因此我們將在其上市的當天提供該股票的差價合約交易。這意味著您可以通過Peppersonte參與到滴滴的股票投資,結合杠桿的優勢對其進行多空的雙向交易。

IPO概覽

根據最新的招股書,滴滴此次IPO將發行2.88億股美國存托股份(ADS),每股ADS發行價區間為13-14美元,四股ADS代表一股A類普通股。此次IPO最多籌集46億美元用於全球業務擴張、技術升級、產品拓展以及戰略投資,公司目標估值為620億-670億美元,不過這仍然低於今年早些時候的1000億美元估值。

由於認購太過火爆,因此滴滴的發行價很可能觸及目標區間上限,甚至有擴大募股數量的可能性。這將是阿裏巴巴2014年上市籌資250億美元以來,中概股在美國最大的一次IPO。

業務版圖

滴滴的業務主要有三大板塊:中國出行業務、國際業務和其他業務。

在中國,滴滴是移動出行市場的主導力量,掌握中國近 90% 的網約車市場份額。其應用程序為用戶提供網約車、出租車、順風車、共享單車、共享電單車、自動駕駛等服務。它也正在涉足一系列其他市場,包括電動汽車充電、汽車維修,甚至是造車等。2020年中國出行業務占到滴滴總收入的94.3%。

從全球範圍來看,滴滴在16個國家/地區的近4000個城市開展業務,並在東南亞市場占有重要地位。全球年活躍用戶近5億人,年活躍司機1500萬人。

財務狀況

在此次IPO之前,滴滴已經獲得21輪融資,總額超200億美元。雖然持續在燒錢,但滴滴仍然連續8年虧損。2018至2020年的凈虧損分別為150億元、97億元和106億元。不過今年第一季度扭虧為盈,實現凈利潤55億元(主要來自於投資收益)。在經歷了艱難的2020年之後,這是一個非常積極的信號。

投資回報超軟銀?

普通投資者的投資回報率可能超過軟銀?這不是癡人說夢!

滴滴的主要機構股東包括軟銀的願景基金(21.5%),Uber(12.8%)和騰訊(6.8%)。根據招股書,軟銀的持股平均成本約為12.7美元,這意味著即使按照此次定價區間的上限14美元計算,孫正義的投資收益率僅為10%,若以年化計算則更低。這對二級市場投資者或者差價合約交易來說並不是遙不可及的目標。

滴滴前景

就在此次IPO前夕,中國正在對大型科技公司展開反壟斷調查,同時還在研究網約車服務定價的透明度。另外,鑒於滴滴在重要市場的份額接近飽和,以及來自規模較小競爭對手的壓力不斷增加,滴滴當前的業務擴張速度恐怕難以為繼。當補貼逐漸減少之後,如何留住司機和用戶也是巨大的考驗。

所有這些不確定性對交易者來說意味著一件事:潛在的做空機會。如果您也持有類似觀點,不妨通過Pepperstone進行交易。敬請期待更多關於滴滴上市的更新。


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