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Analysis

USD
EUR
Bitcoin

美元一枝独秀 加密货币集体沦陷

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
8 Sept 2021
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美元指数周二从一个月低点强势反弹,令非美货币黯然失色,加密货币更是惨遭“血洗”。

在风险偏好降低以及10年期美债收益率升至1.37%的背景下,美元指数(USDX)显出韧性回升至92.50。美元兑所有主要货币周二都录得涨幅。

今明两天还有380亿美元的10年期国债和240亿美元30年期国债的拍卖,这在一定程度上将影响长端收益率和美元的走势。

欧元始终无法迈过1.19的门槛并且出现了回落的迹象。欧洲央行明天的政策会议焦点在于是否会在第四季度开始放缓购债速度(当前为每月800亿欧元)。同时,是否会调整2023年的通胀预期(1.5%)也将显示出央行对于未来经济复苏的信心。

EURUSD

若ECB释放更多鹰派信号或许将抵消美元的升势。汇价在1.1909附近存在明显阻力,随后是更为关键的1.1965和1.20。反之,关注1.18一线的初步支撑。

在本周的三大央行中,澳洲联储昨天率先登场并公布了“鸽派Taper”,即在保持削减购债至40亿澳元每周的决定不变的同时,强调量化宽松在未来的灵活性。澳元在决议出炉后短线拉升,不过在美元走强的背景下最终跌至0.74下方。

加拿大央行今晚将公布利率决议。由于第二季度GDP的意外下跌以及联邦大选(9月20日)日益临近,央行很难在此刻有所作为,维持每周20亿加元的购债速度是大概率事件。再结合着油价的连续第三天下跌,加元不幸成为昨天表现最糟糕的G10货币。

加密货币昨天集体沦陷。萨尔瓦多成为全球首个认可比特币为法定货币的国家,然而比特币日内最大跌幅却接近1万美元,不过其10%的单日暴跌相比其他加密货币来说还算“轻微”。

加密货币单日涨跌幅(2021.09.07)

股市方面,美股投资者在结束长周末后的首个交易日显示出谨慎的情绪,主要指数中仅纳斯达克小幅收高。欧洲股市昨天普跌,或许是投资者在为可能到来的货币政策收紧的信号做准备?日本和中国股市则延续近来的强劲上涨势头。



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