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Analysis
標普500一年多來首次跌穿4000點關口，所有板塊全軍覆沒。科技股為主的納斯達克重挫4.29%，今年累計跌幅超過26%邁入熊市。超級權重股們同樣難逃厄運。特斯拉昨天暴跌9%，亞馬遜-5%，微軟市值跌破2萬億美元。
美聯儲快速收緊貨幣政策以抗擊通脹的決心讓市場對股市進行了重新定價。標普回落到4000點下方，市場流動性吃緊，長期均線又形成了「死叉」。在悲觀情緒籠罩下，指數若跌破頭肩頂結構的頸線位置，將會打開更大的下行空間。
標普500（US500）
從波動率指標來看，反映標普500隱含波動率（未來30天預期波動率）的VIX指數逼近35，而過去20天的實際波動率更是高達35%為2020年3月以來最高。如此高波動的環境下，拋售是必然的選擇。高盛的分析顯示，過去4周累計流出美國股票基金和交易所基金的規模高達370億美元。
短期來看有什麽潛在的利好呢？
本周的重中之重自然是周三晚間公布的美國4月CPI數據，預計從前值8.5%降至8.1%。一旦通脹出現見頂的跡象，美聯儲自然也就沒有必要堅持過於激進的加息步伐，將為市場帶來喘息的空間。實際上，利率市場對今明兩年的加息押註已經有所降溫。如果CPI回落至8%下方，可能會抑製美元指數和美債收益率的上行趨勢，並給股市帶來提振。
另外，我們也可以耐心等待下周五的期權到期日，屆時市場波動可能更趨於穩定並隨之出現一些更清晰的入場位置。從歷史數據來看，熊市反彈並不少見，甚至可以說那些最為驚人的單日漲幅通常都發生在熊市中。關註RSI指標背離所蘊含的潛在機遇。
黃金周一跌至1853附近，盡管如此，相較於美國實際利率的快速回升，現在的金價仍然存在明顯的高估。和股市一樣，黃金ETF最近也遭遇了資金的持續凈流出，而這種局面在加息預期沒有降溫之前很難徹底扭轉。
XAUUSD
原油價格昨天重挫7%。疫情導致的需求缺口和戰爭和製裁所引發的供應擔憂還將繼續主導價格走勢。預計震蕩行情仍將延續，關註WTI原油95.50-110的交投區間。
令人稍感欣慰的是，中國4月的進口數據並沒有想象中糟糕。本周繼續關註中國的CPI、PPI和社融數據。疫情逐步降溫和刺激政策的作用下，原油需求或將在不久的將來回暖。
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