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Analysis

EUR
Oil

歐元反應平靜 油價意外重挫

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
10 Sept 2021
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歐洲央行昨天不出意外的表示將減緩第四季度購債速度,但歐元似乎沒有獲得太多積極的提振。

從第四季度開始,緊急抗疫購債計劃(PEPP)或許會從現在的800億歐元/月降至600-700億歐元/月。同時,央行還上調了未來幾年的通脹預期。

但總體來看,這次決議內容還是顯得較為鴿派的。主要原因包括:1)拉加德不願意承認這是縮減購債,而只是PEPP的校準;2)PEPP明年3月到期後前途未蔔,這就讓12月的會議變得格外重要;3)常規的資產購買計劃(APP)仍在運作並且將保持靈活性;4)歐元區2023年通脹預期從1.4%上調至1.5%,但仍遠低於2%的目標。

德國和意大利10年期國債收益率分別下降4和8個基點。歐元僅僅微漲0.07%至1.1823。1.18和50天均線附近能否形成支撐將決定匯價下一步的走勢。另外,歐元兌瑞郎的漲勢似乎也暫時告一段落。

其他貨幣方面,美元結束了連續三天的上漲,強勁的國債拍賣壓低了10年期和30年期的收益率。避險貨幣日元和瑞郎以及英鎊領漲昨天領漲。澳元幾乎持平,紐元重新回到0.71上方。

昨天市場中跌幅較為顯著的要數WTI原油(SpotCrude),下跌超過2%至67.93,在過去的5天中有4天收低。中國將釋放原油儲備以緩解價格上漲的壓力,這一意外消息打壓了油價。K線圖在50天均線下方形成了看跌吞噬形態,油價下一步或許要在66.60附近尋求支撐。

WTI原油(SpotCrude)

歐美股市昨天普跌。標普和道瓊斯連續四天下跌,暫時還沒有出現逢低買入(buy the dip)的現象。不過自2000年以來,當兩者出現四連跌後,此後第五個交易日收漲的概率高達90%。

美國初請失業金人數再次創下疫情以來新低,這讓周期股(金融、能源、原材料)成為了為數不多的上漲的行業板塊。但投資者對於美聯儲縮表的預期也得到了鞏固。

由於遊戲行業持續受到監管的影響,騰訊、網易等股價的重挫拖累了恒生指數昨天下跌超過2%。



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