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Analysis
昨天的紀要主要透露了以下幾個信息：1）加息至甚至超過中性水平來壓製通脹；2）未來幾次會議上加息50bp是合適的；3）現階段快速退出寬松將為今年晚些時候的「暫停加息」預留出空間，以便美聯儲屆時重新評估甚至調整政策。
如果聯想到亞特蘭大聯儲主席波斯蒂奇本周一的觀點（9月暫停加息是合理的），美聯儲的鷹派程度或許真的已經暫時見頂了。說是「暫時」是因為後續如何調整還是要參考通脹數據，比如明天出爐的4月PCE物價指數。
利率市場顯示，9月加息50bp的概率已經大幅降至40%左右。股市顯然非常歡迎這一改變，尤其是科技股。如果美聯儲能放緩加息速度，金融狀況以及信貸市場自然能出現一定的緩和，這或許能提振標普等股指的走勢。但是在整體風險偏下行的市場環境中，反彈的力度和持續性都將被打上問號。
HYG（高收益率債券ETF，藍色）vs 標普500 （黃色）
值得註意的是，英偉達由於較為悲觀的業績指引導致股價在盤後時間下跌近7%，這可能在今天沖擊其他芯片股和科技股的走勢。阿裏巴巴將在今天美國盤前時間公布財報。
美元近期的回調再加上美聯儲的這份會議紀要，讓黃金多頭又看到了些許希望。短線來看，關註金價在小級別周期中的運行通道，若能突破1866將挑戰100天均線1885一線。反之則看低至1835附近。
XAUUSD 4H
雖然俄烏局勢已經不再是市場的唯一焦點，但能源價格依然非常強勁。WTI原油最近幾日持穩在112上方，地緣政治局勢以及中國潛在的復蘇有望幫助油價繼續震蕩上行。
天然氣價格顯然受益於戰爭和歐美製裁的影響，但目前圖中顯示出的頂背離以及較長的上影線都暗示著價格回落風險正在升高。
NatGas
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