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Analysis

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GBP

【今日速递】刺激协议柳暗花明 美元续跌黄金上扬

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
21 Oct 2020
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美国财政刺激谈判和疫苗的进展提振市场风险情绪,美股一扫连日阴霾周二全线上扬。美元续跌,黄金小幅攀升。

今日关注

  • 英国9月CPI
  • 美国上周EIA原油库存变化

股市

美股在几天的低迷之后周二全线上扬。标普500上涨0.47%,纳斯达克和道琼斯分别上涨0.33%和0.40%。

国会和白宫的财政刺激谈判取得进展,白宫愿意接受1.8万亿美元的方案,这与民主党力推的2.2万亿非常接近。众议院议长佩洛西表示对本周有望达成协议非常乐观。此外,疫苗的进展和强劲的美国房屋数据也部分抵消了市场对疫情的担忧,共同提振了信心。

欧洲股市昨日涨跌不一。但A股三大指数集体收涨,其中沪指上涨0.47%,收报3328.10点。ASX200跌幅0.72%,未能守住6200点。

商品

黄金受财政刺激方案的利好影响升值1907。5天EMA线和RSI有微微上扬的迹象,但总体来看金价还是处于近期的整理格局之中。未来的走势与刺激方案(即通胀预期)高度相关。

WTI原油(XTIUSD)小幅走高但未能收于40上方。油价短期内受政策利好和美元疲弱的影响有望继续在200天均线(黑色)上方震荡上行。若突破41.40的阻力区域后或将挑战8月高点43.54。

外汇

美元指数(USDX)三连跌后收于93.05,风险情绪抬头让资金撤出避险美元。10年期国债收益升至6月以来最高的0.79%。

欧元连续第三天上涨,收于1.18上方,为两周来最高收盘价。美元的弱势盖过了欧洲地区二次爆发的疫情和不断升级的防疫限制措施。德国和荷兰的单日新增病例创记录新高,法国的住院人数大幅增加,而爱尔兰则宣布了欧洲最严厉的封城措施。

英镑持平于1.2947,5天EMA线同样走势平缓。英国央行的官员再次谈及了负利率的政策,但对英国脱欧谈判继续进行的乐观情绪支撑了汇价。汇价面临下降趋势线的考验,首要阻力位在1.2990附近。

澳元连续四个交易日收跌,昨天的澳洲联储会议纪要再次强化了市场对于宽松货币政策的预期,普遍预计11月将迎来降息和QE。目前汇价呈现震荡下行的趋势。上行方向受到短期均线和9月初开始的下降趋势线压制。汇价已经跌破100天均线(绿色),目前阻力最小的路径为继续下行。汇价或将加速跌至9月低点0.70附近,若下破后恐将大幅下挫至6月末的0.6820区域。

纽元跌至0.66下方,新西兰央行发表鸽派言论并重提负利率所能带来的益处。离岸人民币触及2年多来的新高6.6633。



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