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Analysis

USD
Gold

佐治亚的抉择

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
5 Jan 2021
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随着佐治亚州参议员决选的临近,美国大选的最后悬念即将揭晓!

由于去年的佐治亚州参议员选举中没有候选者获得超过半数选票,因此美国当地时间1月5日将进行第二轮选举,决出最后两个参议院的席位归属。目前共和党以50-48在参议院中保持微弱多数。若民主党能拿下本次选举的全部两席,再加上候任副总统哈里斯作为参议院议长的决定性一票,将在参议院获得多数席位从而实现完全执政。而共和党只需要一席就能继续控制参议院,延续分裂国会的现状。

最新的民调显示,民主党的两位候选人暂时领跑。

来源:fivethirtyeight.com

由于两党的政策主张截然不同,因此此次美国政坛(可能产生)的变化不仅将左右未来政策的走向,也将对金融市场,尤其是美股产生深远的影响。从这个角度来看,佐治亚州的选择至关重要。

股市

若民主党同时掌握白宫(行政)和国会(立法),首先会推行的就是一直以来受到共和党阻挠的更大规模财政刺激。如推出新一轮纾困方案、增加个人支票的金额、以及加大对州和市政府的资金援助。同时,也将更积极地投身基础设施建设、环保以及医疗保险补助,落实拜登的竞选主张。

虽然上述政策有望帮助经济尽快走出泥潭,但其代价却是增加企业税收,华尔街已经对此表示出了担忧。另外,更多财政刺激将加速劳动力市场的恢复,使得美联储可能会提前收紧货币政策,这对股市来说并不是一个好消息。要知道史无前例的宽松政策正是支撑股市2020年连创新高的根本原因。

因此,有分析师指出若民主党拿下佐治亚州的两个参议员席位,股市将面临短线抛售。而投资者已经提前做出反映,美国三大股指2021年首个交易日下跌均超过1%,创下2016年以来最差新年开局表现。从某种程度上说,分裂国会带来的权力制衡可能更受市场欢迎。

当然,即使在蓝色浪潮的情况下,股市还是会存在结构性机遇的。周期股有望将持续从刺激措施和经济复苏中受益,科技股前景则面临考验。除了增加企业税率之外,考虑到经济复苏带动的美债收益率上升以及拜登加强大型科技公司监管的主张,科技股很难重现2020年的辉煌。事实上,自去年11月以来,FANG的涨幅就落后于大盘。民主党若在佐治亚获胜可能会加速美股的板块轮动。

美元和黄金

在看空美元这点上,市场已经基本达成共识。除了美联储的承诺(长期维持低利率不变)之外,拜登执政后势必将加大支出从而加剧本以沉重的债务负担和赤字率,而恢复国际贸易将增加美元的全球供应。上述因素都将对美元指数(USDX)形成长期的压制。若民主党完全执政,失去制衡力量的国会将会加速这一过程。月线图上,指数在跌破上升通道下沿支撑后,将加速跌向2018年低点88.14。

美元的下跌对黄金形成天然利好。更为关键的是,对民主党大规模刺激的预期叠加疫苗等因素已经使10年期盈亏平衡通胀率(即预期通胀率)升至了近2%的水平,为2018年11月以来的新高。

来源:Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

受此影响,美国10年期实际利率再次触及历史低位-1.08%,这极大的提升了无固定收益的黄金的吸引力。金价昨日在突破了100天均线和自8月以来的下行趋势线后大幅跳升至1940上方,多头的下一个目标显然是11月高点1965。展望全年,黄金重回2000美元应该只是时间问题。



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