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Analysis
我們在昨天的文章中提到的1.0640的小目標已經達成，且周線圖上在5年低點位置形成了看漲吞噬形態，歐元多頭的下一個目標將瞄向1.0770一線，這裏是50天均線、3月以來跌勢的50%回檔位，以及4月低點的匯合區域。若能有效突破將進一步看高至1.0936。
EURUSD
由於歐元區通脹達到了創紀錄的7.4%，且俄烏局勢仍然不明朗，壓低通脹已經刻不容緩。近來有越來越多的歐洲央行官員呼籲盡快加息，而歐洲央行主席拉加德昨天的表態更為明確。她表示央行已經準備好在6月結束QE，7月開啟加息，並在9月前退出負利率政策（目前存款利率為-0.5%）。利率市場顯示，歐洲央行年底前將加息110個基點，即在從7月開始的每一次會議上都至少加息25個基點。
就在歐洲央行不斷暗示加息的同時，美聯儲的鷹派程度似乎已經達到頂峰。市場出現了2023-2024年降息的揣測，美聯儲官員博斯蒂克更是認為，在連續50bp的加息之後需要在9月暫停加息以評估市場反映和通脹環境。此消彼長之下，此前一直困擾著歐元的歐美貨幣政策差異正在縮小。
同樣收窄的還有歐美利差。下圖顯示德國和美國的10年期實際利率的利差（白線）已經升至-1.5%。以此為參照，EURUSD（藍線）應該還有進一步上升的空間。
當然，歐元的反彈也並非一帆風順。如果美股繼續下跌恐慌蔓延，或者本周的經濟數據和會議紀要再次鞏固對美聯儲加息的預期，美元的買盤自然會重新湧現並使歐元承壓。
從更長周期來看，歐元仍然處在長達一年的下行趨勢當中，且面臨著諸多不確定性。歐洲的地緣政治，能源危機、經濟前景、內部分歧以及資本外流等問題都頗為棘手，這也是很多人預測歐元會跌至與美元平價的原因。
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