- English
- 中文版
Analysis
标普500再度刷新记录高位，其中能源、原材料等板块领涨。当指数的隐含波动率（VIX）在16.7的低位附近的同时，其10天历史波动率却已经跌至5%以下。这是否暗示着“暴风雨前的平静”呢？
虽然参议院通过了1万亿美元的基建方案，但佩洛西明确表示，在拜登的3.5万亿美元的预算案获得通过之前，众议院不会对此进行投票表决。这也意味着基建法案的正真落地还有很多的不确定性，同样未知的还有政府的债务上限。再考虑到疫情的蔓延，市场情绪有随时反转的可能。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）结束两天的下跌，反弹2.5%后收于68.54。从日线图来看，油价似乎已经确认了65.23的双底，并在66.75附近已经形成一定的支撑。但Delta病毒仍然是油市场难以摆脱的困扰。
WTI原油（SpotCrude）
今晚的7月通胀数据是本周的焦点。市场预计7月CPI将从5.4%降至5.3%，核心CPI从4.5%降至4.3%，主要是因为上半年飙升的木材、油价、和二手车价格的回落。
好于预期的数据可能进一步刺激投资者对于缩表和加息的预期，从而巩固美元的走势，黄金则前景堪忧。
由于美债收益率持续反弹，美元指数（USDX）延续着上周非农之后的强劲走势突破了93关口，前高93.15和93.50是上方的首要目标。而在连续两天累计近80美元的抛售之后，黄金昨天收平。在金价回到1760上方之前，短线的超卖反弹预计很难持续。1700以及1680是空头的主要目标。
XAUUSD
强劲的通胀同样有望帮助美/日有望冲击111，而欧/美或将跌向3月低点1.1704。银行股将会是对冲通胀的另一个选择，比如标普500的银行业ETF（MT5上代码KBE）。
但是，由于6月的通胀已经飙至了数十年来的新高，此次增速有所放缓也是情理之中，但无论如何都将远超美联储平均2%的目标。不过如果通胀大幅逊于预期，不排除引发美元短线获利了结的可能性。
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..