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Analysis
周二價格波動是近來市場走勢的一個縮影。而在背後推波助瀾的則是通脹！全球主要經濟體正面臨著幾十年來最高的通脹率，以美聯儲為首的央行只能祭出加息這個殺手鐧試圖擊退通脹。雖然到目前為止效果有限，不過各類資產價格已經被攪的天翻地覆。
今天晚間出爐的美國6月CPI或將成為拋向市場的又一顆「震撼彈」。預計年率為8.8%，高於前值8.6%，核心CPI預計上漲5.8%，低於前值6%。核心CPI的統計中剔除了價格波動劇烈的能源和食品。
有一點可以肯定的是，不論這次數據如何，美國通脹都還尚未見頂，這意味著美聯儲在本月末加息75個基點幾乎沒有懸念。而衰退的預期也會繼續發酵，市場的總體趨勢還會延續。
比較樂觀的信號是，油價已經從6月高點下降了22%，美國的汽油價格連續25天下降，紐約聯儲的全球供應鏈壓力指數連續兩個月回落。不過這些體現到數據中還需要一定的時間。
如果考慮到數據公布後的短線走勢，則存在不同的可能性。若CPI低於8.5%，美債收益率恐將大幅下跌，帶動美元回落，並提振黃金、科技股和數字貨幣等。反之，若CPI接近甚至超過9%，市場可能出現100個基點的加息預期，美元或將勢不可擋，看漲美/日的同時繼續看空歐/美和大宗商品。
XAUUSD
除了萬眾矚目的美國通脹數據之外，今天還有兩家央行價格繼續加息步伐。
新西蘭央行今天連續第六次加息，也是連續第三次以50個基點的幅度加息，但紐元反映不大。新西蘭的經濟壓力日益凸顯，一季度經濟萎縮，房產市場正在降溫，企業信心下跌，通脹接近高點，再結合到全球經濟形勢，因此預計下半年的加息節奏會有所放緩。加拿大央行今晚登場，目前市場存在一定分歧，50和75個基點的變動都有可能。關鍵在於央行對於未來路徑的態度。
對紐元和加元等商品貨幣來說，央行加息以及鷹派措辭或許能給貨幣帶來短線的利好，但匯率更大程度上還是受到了全球經濟前景和風險情緒的影響。在美元走強和商品價格大跌的背景下，商品貨幣恐將繼續承壓。
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