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Analysis

USD
Gold

鲍威尔获得连任提名 巨轮即将转向?

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
23 Nov 2021
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在感恩节假期之前,拜登提名鲍威尔连任美联储主席,而其唯一的竞争对手美联储理事布雷纳德被提名为副主席。万众瞩目的美联储掌舵人之争落下帷幕后,美国的货币政策或许将逐渐显露出鹰派倾向。

在巨轮即将“转向”的关键时刻更换船长显然并不是一个最佳的决定!

布雷娜德虽然与拜登同为民主党阵营,并且致力于加强金融监管和处理气候变化等议题,但更为鸽派的她或许会更长时间保持宽松货币政策,从而使已经处于30年新高的通胀变得更难以遏制。这对于明年要面对期中选举的拜登政府来说是无法接受的。

鲍威尔尽管也一直强调通胀“暂时论”,但他对未来加息的态度显得更为开放,并且已经为退出政策制定了路线图。而且提名拥有跨党派支持的鲍威尔更容易通过参议院的表决程序,是一个最为稳妥的选择。在特朗普之前,上一位没有在任内重新任命时任美联储主席的总统还要追溯到1978年的吉米卡特。

鲍威尔的连任不仅使得政策有了连贯性和可预测性,也为美联储打开了加速收紧货币政策的大门。在任命决定出炉后,市场对美联储首次加息的时间预期已经从明年7月提前至6月,而2022年底之前加息的次数也升至了2.8次。

市场方面,美国各期限(尤其是2年期)的债券收益率全线走高,提振美元指数强势突破96关口,非美货币则集体下挫。美股的金融和能源板块领涨,科技股跌幅居前。由于实际利率(下图白线)的大涨,与其形成几乎完美负相关性的黄金(下图橙线)跌超2%至1805附近,为3个月来最大单日跌幅。

没有了连任压力之后,鲍威尔或许会在未来修正其一直所坚持的通胀“暂时论”并逐步展现鹰派立场。毕竟当前30年来最高的通胀率已经不仅仅是经济问题,更是政治和社会层面必须解决的议题。美联储副主席(即将卸任)克拉里达已经公开喊话,认为应该加快缩表的速度。

本周四为美国感恩节假期,众多数据将于周三提前公布。作为美联储最为看重的通胀参考指标,10月核心PCE物价指数预期将增长4.1%,前值为3.6%。

即将到来的12月将更为关键。12月3日为今年最后一次的非农报告,12月11日出炉的美国11月通胀数据预计将突破7%(前值6.2%),创下1982年来最大涨幅。如果通胀一路冲高,12月16日的FOMC会议后美联储可能会顺势修正通胀预测和点阵图,甚至宣布加快缩表进度。

对货币政策加速转变的预期有望帮助美元延续强势姿态,而欧洲央行的鸽派基调以及欧洲疫情的恶化无疑会放大美元的相对优势(欧元占美元指数57%的权重)。如果实际利率进一步回升,黄金短时间内恐怕将转为守势。


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