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Analysis

USD
Silver
GBP

【今日速递】全球“涨”声四起 唯独美元掉队

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
18 Dec 2020
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随着美国财政刺激方案以及英国脱欧协议的渐行渐近,风险情绪推升美股再创新高,黄金、原油以及非美货币继续攀升,而美元指数则跌破90关口。

今日关注

  • 日本央行公布利率决议
  • 德国12月IFO商业景气指数

股市

美国主要股指周四再次收于历史新高,涨幅区间在0.5%-0.8%之间。

由于财政刺激方案与政府支出法案绑定,因此预计最快将于本周在国会获得通过。这份市场翘首以盼了几个月的9000亿美元左右的刺激方案将是投资者最好的圣诞节礼物。高涨的风险偏好使人们忽略了疫情死亡人数在美国频创新高的现实,而日内公布的参差不齐的经济数据也显得不那么重要。

美国11月新屋开工数增长超预期,但初请失业金人数升至88.5万人,连续三周上涨,同时12月费城联储制造业指数录得11.1,为6月以来的最低水平。

欧洲股市昨日普涨,欧盟预计将在12月底开始疫苗接种。亚太股市方面,A股三大指数集体收涨,其中沪指上涨1.13%,收报3404.87点。澳洲ASX200攀升至6756.7点,涨幅1.16%,创近10个月收盘新高。

商品

黄金攀升至50天均线上方,收于一个月高点1885.39。美元的持续颓势以及财政刺激方案即将出炉的消息刺激金价本周的反弹。多头的下一个目标为100天均线附近的1900整数关口。

白银正在测试26美元的关键阻力。完成此处的突破后有望看高至27.63甚至冲击年内高点。但需要留意的是处于超买区域的随机震荡指标。

WTI原油(XTIUSD)四连阳后收报48.39,继续刷新疫情以来的高点。疫苗以及纾困方案预计将显著拉高明年的全球原油需求。

比特币飙升7.2%,盘中一度突破23000美元。

外汇

美元指数(USDX)在经历了长期的单边下跌后,周四终于跌破90关口,为2018年以来首次。在积极的市场氛围之下,投资者追逐风险资产而抛售避险美元。由于市场对美元的看空观点趋于一致,叠加美联储长期维持低利率的承诺,美元可能进一步跌向2018年低点88.14。

欧元跳升至1.2268。即将展开的疫苗接种以及英国脱欧的进展提振欧元至两年多来的高点。法国总统确诊新冠并接受隔离的消息未能给市场带来影响。

英镑受益于脱欧谈判的乐观预期,连续第三天收涨后来到1.3584。在突破前期高点形成的阻力区域之后,留意汇价回踩确认1.35附近的支撑。

风险货币全线上扬。澳元延续上涨势头至0.7626。澳洲11月失业率从前值7%降至6.8%,新增9万就业人口,远高于预期的4万。

纽元收高于0.7153,新西兰第三季度GDP增长14%。加元走强至1.2722。



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