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Analysis

US2000
Oil
USD

【今日速递】美联储决议前夕美元续跌 黄金强势反弹

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
16 Dec 2020
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受美国财政刺激方案和疫苗进展的利好影响,风险资产周二全线上扬,美元重回弱势,英镑继续冲高。

今日关注

  • 法国、德国、欧元区、英国PMI指数
  • 美国11月零售销售
  • 美联储利率决议

股市

美国主要股指周二涨超1%,标普500结束四连跌,道琼斯指数重回3万大关,罗素2000指数再刷历史新高。

旷日持久的美国财政刺激谈判取得进展,以及Moderna疫苗被监管机构认定为安全等利好消息提振了市场人气,使投资者暂时忽略了近期不佳的经济数据、疫情的严重程度以及可能实施的大规模封锁。

美国银行的分析指出,投资者对股票、大宗商品等风险资产的看涨程度达到2011年2月以来最高水平。

欧洲和亚太股市走势产生分化。其中沪指收跌0.06%,报3367.23点。澳洲ASX200下挫至6631.3点,跌幅0.43%。

商品

黄金周二反弹至一周高点1853.24,财政刺激方案的柳暗花明提升了明年的通胀预期,使得抗通胀的黄金受到追捧。另外,美联储的低利率承诺使实际利率始终低位运行,同样将在未来对金价形成支撑。

WTI原油(XTIUSD)跳升至47.57,为今年4月以来最高水平。投资者对刺激方案的期待盖过了IEA调降原油需求预期和美国原油库存连续上升的负面影响。

随着疫苗的问世,全球经济和原油需求的缓慢复苏值得期待。多头的下一个目标为3月高点48.72。

外汇

美元指数(USDX)跌至90.35,收盘价创两年半新低。风险偏好的持续高涨令美元缺乏避险买盘支撑。

美联储将于今天公布新一期利率决议,市场将关注美联储是否会调整债券组合的期限以及资产购买的前瞻指引。无论如何,美联储的宽松政策在短期内不会改变,市场已经对美元的中长期弱势格局形成一定的共识。

英镑拉升1%至1.3464。有消息指出,英国和欧盟双方有望在本周就贸易谈判达成协议,这一利好令投资者无视了不如人意的英国就业数据。

目前汇价运行在上升通道的中线上方。9月高点1.3482成为汇价的下一个阻力位,随后是年内高点1.3539。

欧元连续第二天上涨,收盘报1.2152,这是自2018年4月以来的收盘价新高。

澳元在全球风险情绪的带动下收高于0.7557。中国正式禁止进口澳洲煤炭的消息未能对汇价造成明显波动。铁矿石价格的飙升以及中国的巨大需求帮助澳元继续在两年半来的高位运行。

纽元周二小幅上涨至0.7089。美/加收低于1.2698。


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