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Analysis

Gold
CAD

【今日速递】 脱欧曙光再现!特朗普圣诞“添堵”?

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
24 Dec 2020
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美元周三重回跌势,黄金、原油跟随非美货币全线上扬。

股市

美股周三涨跌不一。道琼斯指数收盘上涨0.38%,标普500微涨0.07%,纳斯达克下跌0.29%。

特朗普给刚刚在国会通过的刺激方案浇了一盆冷水,他表示不会签署9000亿美元的纾困方案,要求将其中支付给个人的支票金额由600美元提升至2000美元。众议院表示将尽快重新审议该提议。如果特朗普不能在12月28日前签署该法案,不但刺激方案将面临搁浅,政府也将再次面临停摆。

昨天公布的经济数据总体缺乏亮点。除了非农好于预期之外(但仍高于80万),PCE物价指数、个人消费支出、耐用品订单,以及消费者信息指数等都差强人意。

英国脱欧的贸易谈判曙光再现,帮助欧洲股市周三实现普涨。A股三大指数集体收涨,其中沪指上涨0.76%,收报3382.32点。澳洲ASX200涨幅0.66%。

商品

黄金攀升至1873.13,结束连续三天的下跌。目前黄金仍受制于历史高点以来的下降趋势线,在突破1900之前预计将继续保持弱势。不过大多数机构看好黄金在2021的表现,在政府的大规模刺激以及央行的量化宽松作用下,金价有望在明年再次冲击2000大关。

WTI原油(XTIUSD)从一周低点反弹至47.92,为两周来最大涨幅。尽管财政刺激方案面临波折,但脱欧的乐观情绪以及美国原油库存下降的消息暂时提振了多头的信心。

外汇

美元指数(USDX)周三下挫,收于10天均线下方但守住90关口。风险偏好推升10年期美债收益率至0.94%。

英镑拉升至1.3497。英国和欧盟的贸易谈判已经进入到最后阶段,并有望在近日达成历史性的贸易协议,为长达五年之久的脱欧画上句号。在最终结果出炉之前,错综复杂又相互矛盾的消息将加剧英镑的波动。若协议最终出炉,不仅英镑有望冲击1.40一线,也将带动其他风险货币上扬。但若协议落空,英镑的下跌幅度则取决于双方对未来是否延续谈判的态度。

欧元上涨至1.2186。投资者倾向于忽视糟糕的疫情现状而拥抱刺激方案、脱欧进展等积极因素,使得欧元近来徘徊在两年半高点附近。

商品货币周三普涨。澳元升至0.7577。受困于与中国的贸易摩擦,11月澳洲贸易顺差从前值47亿澳元降至19亿澳元。纽元收盘无限接近0.71关口,重回5天EMA线上方。

加元走强至1.2844,加拿大10月GDP月率好于预期。



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