- English
- 中文版
Analysis
在过去一段时间，英国的疫苗接种率遥遥领先于其他主要经济体，经济重启的步伐同样如此，首相约翰逊甚至表示英国计划在6月实现完全解封。我们可以预期央行此次对经济前景的乐观展望，如上修GDP增速和通胀率并下调失业率。毕竟现在看起来，央行在二月份所给出的预测显得有些保守和滞后。
更乐观的经济预测自然让人联想到货币政策调整的可能性。加息几乎不在讨论范围，但市场关注的焦点在于购债计划，即英国央行是否会跟随加拿大央行的脚步（购债从40亿降至30亿加元每周）在明天宣布缩减当前44亿英镑每周的购债规模。以当前的购债速度计算，8750亿英镑的购债额度将早于年底前的数月就耗尽，若降至30亿英镑每周则可能维持至年底。一旦缩减购债，有望提振英镑冲击1.40。
之所以说是“超级星期四”，是因为本周四对英国人来说更为重要的焦点是地方、区域和市长的选举，这是民众对政府处理疫情和脱欧等重大事项结果的一次集中检验。其中苏格兰议会的选举结果对金融市场至关重要。若支持独立的苏格兰民族党（SNP）成为多数党，那么我们很有可能看到独立公投2.0。而从目前的民调结果来看，公投通过的可能性很高。这让刚刚经历了脱欧和疫情打击的英国面临又一巨大的不确定性因素，显然将不利于英镑的走势。
英国政府也将陷入两难。虽说可以拒绝独立公投，但这无疑会造成更大的愤怒和反弹，让局面变得难以收场。但如果任由发展，可能引起其他自治地区的纷纷效仿。长期来看，英国和苏格兰议会之间的政治博弈可能在未来的某个时间冲击金融市场。
英镑自3月以来多次挑战1.40均无功而返。由于疫情和经济的乐观前景已经被市场充分计价，汇价想要进一步上涨的门槛已经大幅提高。下行方向，若失守长期趋势线的支撑，或将下探3月和4月的低点1.3668一线。
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..