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Analysis

美股暴跌財報黯然失色油價重回100大關

27 Apr 2022

納斯達克重挫4%，特斯拉暴跌12%，俄羅斯揚言斷供天然氣，一夜之間避險情緒再度升溫。

美股並沒有能夠延續周一的反彈，昨天三大股指全線下挫。納指刷新年內低點並創下2008年以來最大的單日跌幅，標普和道瓊斯分別下跌2.8%和2.3%。由於擔心馬斯克對於Twitter所投入的資源和精力可能影響到特斯拉的運營，後者單日超過12%的跌幅嚴重拖累整體市場走勢。除能源板塊外，幾乎所有行業指數都全軍覆沒。

谷歌在盤後時間公布的財報不及預期，股價一度下跌超6%。微軟的業績符合預期，但股價仍受到避險情緒的波及。目前來看，財報對股價的提振並不明顯或者說門檻非常高，接下去關註Facebook（周三）、蘋果和亞馬遜（周四）公布的業績情況。

由於恐慌拋售的根源在於對過快收緊的貨幣政策和經濟成長前景的擔憂，因此市場情緒能否逆轉的關鍵還在於美聯儲的態度和中國的防疫進展。如果美聯儲能將關註重點從“通脹”逐漸轉向“抗通脹與經濟增長的平衡”，或許能安撫投資者的情緒，不過這至少也要等到5月5日的美聯儲會議聲明之後了。

俄羅斯的最新表態進一步增添了不確定性。對於一些不使用盧布結算的“不友好國家”，俄羅斯將對其中止天然氣的供應。歐洲天然氣期貨價格應聲上漲10%，並推升WTI原油重回100美元上方。

避險情緒烘托下，黃金持穩在1905美元附近。雖然債市、股市和外匯市場的隱含波動率均處於階段性高位，但金價近來似乎不為所動，其波動率相對較低。

從上至下分別是黃金、美債、標普500和G7貨幣的隱含波動率

避險情緒升高同樣打壓了加密貨幣，下圖顯示出比特幣（黃色）和納斯達克指數（藍色）之間近來相似的趨勢。

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