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Analysis
由於美聯儲25個基點的加息幅度早已被充分預期，並且全年7次的加息背後顯示出的是對經濟前景的信心，因此投資者對鷹派聲明進行了正面的解讀，帶動美股三連陽。與此同時，俄羅斯已支付1.17億美元債券利息的消息也暫時打消了對於主權債務違約的擔憂，風險情緒進一步升高。
目前標普500指數（US500）正在逼近關鍵阻力區域。4400點附近有著前高、200天均線以及下降趨勢線的共同壓製。只有打破此前一系列「更低的高點」的趨勢，指數才能真正形成反轉。
需要註意的是，本周五是美國期權的到期日，隨著合約的平倉或行權以及對沖倉位的解除，市場或將面臨更大程度的波動。
另外，目前收益率曲線還在持續平坦化，這與鮑威爾表示的「經濟衰退風險不高」似乎有些出入，也是美股想要繼續上行之前需要面臨的挑戰。
US500
WIT和布倫特原油昨天重新奪回了100美元關口。由於俄羅斯否認了在和平談判上取得了實質性進展，俄烏局勢的前景又變得撲朔迷離了起來。國際能源署（IEA）預測從4月開始，俄羅斯每天300萬桶的原油供應將無法進入市場，因此對於供應緊缺的擔憂重燃。
WTI原油在上升趨勢線即95美元附近獲得強勁買盤支撐，日線圖上出現反轉信號，小級別周期上能看到明顯的雙底結構，似乎這裏能形成階段性的底部。
WTI（SpotCrude）
即使戰爭或許即將落幕，對俄羅斯的各種製裁也不可能馬上取消，再加上供應端原本就存在產能不足的問題，因此油價後市仍具有上行空間。但值得註意的是，WTI的近端和遠端合約的價差已經收窄至個位數，這暗示著油價最為瘋狂的上漲階段可能已經過去。
考慮到烏克蘭危機逐漸降溫，金價很難爆發出此前的上漲動能，但25個基點的加息也不足以拉低金價，且美國實際利率仍未深度負值，因此黃金目前處於相對平穩的整理階段。美元的持續回落或將幫助金價再次挑戰1960/70區域。
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