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Analysis
美國5月製造業PMI數據繼續擴張且好於預期，其中物價支付指數仍然處於高位並高於市場預期，但低於前值。這和此前的PCE數據一樣，暗示著美國通脹或許正在見頂，但要真正的回落還需要時間。
與此同時，空缺職位數依然在記錄高位附近徘徊。在目前的美國，每一個失業人口對應兩個空缺職位，可見勞動力市場仍然非常吃緊。而面對招工困難，雇主只能通過提高工資來解決，這也是為什麽通脹短時間難以迅速降溫的原因。
明天出爐的非農報告中除了關註新增就業（預計32.5萬，前值42.8萬）和失業率（預計3.5%，前值3.6%）之外，平均時薪增速同樣重要，預計將從5.5%降至5.2%。
昨天的數據公布之後，美聯儲中支持快速加息的呼聲再次升高，而各期限美債收益率同步走高。更為關鍵的是，5年期實際利率經過一段時間的整理之後再度升至零值附近，帶動美元指數同樣在趨勢線和均線位置反彈。
美元指數（USDX）
其他非美貨幣昨天全線承壓。與美債收益率相關性最高的當屬美/日，昨天是三周以來首次突破130。歐洲央行的愈發鷹派的加息預期並沒能提振歐元走勢，在1.0780一線突破未果之後昨天重新回到50天均線下方。加拿大央行如期宣布50bp的加息並且明示未來會有更多的措施來遏製通脹，不過加元在收盤時回吐了所有日內漲幅。
在美元走強的背景下，黃金昨天意外收漲。但值得註意的是，目前不論是從周線，日線，或小級別周期來看，黃金都是處於下行通道中。相比於不斷升高的實際利率，金價仍然存在高估。不過美聯儲對於未來加息路徑的激烈辯論或許能避免金價的大幅回落。
XAUUSD 4H
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