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Analysis

US500

前方高能预警! 超级星期四来袭!

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
29 Oct 2020
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美国大选已经进入最终决战阶段,又恰逢欧美疫情加剧,避险情绪升温导致股市重挫。此时投资者很容易忽略另一个焦点,即正在陆续出炉的美股第三季度财报。

对美国以及全球的上市公司来说,第三季度依然无比艰难。除了政治的不确定性(大选、脱欧、中美关系等),疫情的肆虐和不同程度的封锁对经济复苏的拖累都让企业痛苦不堪。

四巨头财报集中出炉

在此次财报季中,最引人注目的无疑是美国当地时间10月29日周四,亚马逊、谷歌、苹果以及Facebook四家科技股巨头将在盘后交易时间集中公布三季度财报。

作为美股投资者,您可以在Pepperstone的MT5平台上,利用盘后时间来交易这些主流的美股CFD、指数、以及ETF产品。

Amazon(AMZN.O) 来源:Pepperstone MT5

从今年3月以来,科技股引领了大盘的强势上涨。虽然近期科技股随着美债收益率曲线的陡峭而有所回落,但截止目前,上述四家科技股仍然占据Nasdaq100指数近三成的市值,同时占据标普500指数总市值的15%。如此高权重的上市公司在相对较短的时间窗口内密集公布财报,显然将推升市场波动率。

据统计,这四家公司在过去8个的财报公布日中的平均涨跌幅度为4.8%。期权市场的隐含波动率显示,财报公布当天四只股票的平均预期波动幅度为3.1%,反映了市场的高波动性,值得引起那些持有相关头寸的交易者关注。

财报的外溢效应

若今天的财报公布之后,Nasdaq100和标普500都产生剧烈的波动,这一财报效应同样可能会外溢至外汇市场。简单来讲,若股指上扬,包括AUD、NZD和MXN在内的风险货币有望获得提振。而传统的避险货币如JPY以及CHF等可能因为股指的下挫而走高。

更多市场焦点

之所以称今天为“超级星期四”,是因为除了财报,市场还将迎来一系列重磅数据,如日本和欧洲央行利率决议、美国第三季度GDP、个人消费支出物价指数(PCE)以及初请失业金人数等。

如此多的数据在同一天密集出炉并不常见。因此投资者需要密切关注今天市场走势,寻求合适的入场机会,或者调整持有仓位提前做好风险管理。


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