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Analysis

NZD
CAD
JPY

从央行决议前瞻货币走势

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
13 July 2021
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本周的财经日历上,三大央行的利率决议无疑是焦点所在。

随着经济的复苏,有越来越多的央行已经流露出结束宽松政策的意愿,比如新西兰和加拿大央行此前已经预期将提前启动加息。而日本央行与之形成鲜明的对比,继续维持宽松甚至延长了疫情救助计划。这三家央行都将在本周公布最新利率决议。

央行立场的显著差异将引发资本的逐利和货币市场的波动,而交易机遇往往就蕴藏其中。

新西兰联储将于周三(北京时间10:00)公布利率决议

新西兰的经济数据看上去非常强劲。第一季度GDP同比增长2.4%,大幅好于预期。第一季度失业率从4.9%降到了4.7%,薪资率上升到了1.6%。第一季度通胀率1.5%好于预期,房价也在持续升高。

虽然联储在5月的会议上宣布大规模资产购买计划(LSAP)和融资换贷款计划(FLP)都维持不变,但当时暗示了可能在2022年5月加息。此后市场更为激进的预测最早在今年11月就会加息。从某种程度上来说,联储偏鹰派的立场被过度解读了,加上邻国澳大利亚仍旧处于封锁之中,因此预计此次会议暂时不会有实质性的改变。

对纽元来说,最大的“风险”正是“没有消息”。换句话说,如果联储真的认同在年底前加息,本次会议上就应该公布退出LSAP的计划,这样纽元或将得到强劲支撑。若能重新回夺回200天均线(0.7066)将设法回升至4-5月份的0.7123-0.7315区域。反之,若联储含糊其辞甚至打压加息预期,则关注年内低点0.6923附近的支撑。

NZDUSD

由于澳洲联储上周释放了鸽派信号,新西兰和澳洲的货币政策走向出现了明显的分化,这对于澳/纽的空头来说可能是一个潜在的交易机遇。

加拿大央行将于本周三(北京时间22:00)公布利率决议

加拿大央行早在4月就宣布将每周的购债从40亿削减至30亿加元,并预期加息时间可能从原先的2023年提前至2022年,从而成为了最早转变货币政策的主要央行之一。加元也一度走强至6年高位。不过加拿大央行6月重申维持利率不变至少到2022年下半年,再结合美元6月的强势表现,共同打压了加元。

加拿大6月份的新增就业实现正增长,为三个月来首次,失业率下降至7.8%。目前市场的加息预期已经提前至2022年第一季度。投资者可以关注本周央行是否会继续削减购债(可能性高于新西兰联储),以及以什么样的速度削减购债。

技术面来看,若美/加无法冲破维加斯通道的阻力区域,可能会回落至1.24和1.23一线。反之则有望冲击1.2650和1.2750等前高。

USDCAD

另外,原油价格的波动也是加元需要面对的巨大不确定性之一。

日本央行将于周五(北京时间11:00)公布利率决议

日本央行在6月维持负利率(-0.1%)和10年期收益率目标(0%)不变,并且还宣布将9月到期的疫情救助计划延长6个月。

由于东京已经第四次进入紧急状态,央行本周保持货币政策不变应该不是一个太难的决定,甚至还可能下调本财年的经济增长预测。

此次紧急状态的周期涵盖即将到来的奥运会,空场奥运对日本来说是沉重的经济负担。

日元上周一枝独秀领跑所有G10货币,但这种由避险情绪所引发的买盘更像是技术性调整而非基本面的根本转变。只要全球的疫情持续好转,作为融资货币的日元短期内恐怕难有出色表现。日元系货币对的下跌都可能伴随着做多的机会。

USDJPY

日线图上,汇价若能在通道下轨109.50附近企稳,后市有望继续挑战111关口。值得注意的是,美/日与美国10年期债券收益率的走势高度相关。后者目前正试图从2月以来的低点回升。



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