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Analysis

US

滴滴上市 — 通过Pepperstone进行股票交易

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
30 June 2021
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这可能是今年最大的,也是最受期待的 IPO 之一。

作为越来越多的中国独角兽“公司(估值达到10亿美元以上的初创企业)之一,滴滴是UBER、Grab 和 Ola 等全球网约车公司的主要竞争对手。在正式向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)递交IPO申请后,滴滴(DIDI)拟于本周在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市。

因为有许多客户对滴滴的上市感兴趣,因此我们将在其上市的当天提供该股票的差价合约交易。这意味着您可以通过Peppersonte参与到滴滴的股票投资,结合杠杆的优势对其进行多空的双向交易。

IPO概览

根据最新的招股书,滴滴此次IPO将发行2.88亿股美国存托股份(ADS),每股ADS发行价区间为13-14美元,四股ADS代表一股A类普通股。此次IPO最多筹集46亿美元用于全球业务扩张、技术升级、产品拓展以及战略投资,公司目标估值为620亿-670亿美元,不过这仍然低于今年早些时候的1000亿美元估值。

由于认购太过火爆,因此滴滴的发行价很可能触及目标区间上限,甚至有扩大募股数量的可能性。这将是阿里巴巴2014年上市筹资250亿美元以来,中概股在美国最大的一次IPO。

业务版图

滴滴的业务主要有三大板块:中国出行业务、国际业务和其他业务。

在中国,滴滴是移动出行市场的主导力量,掌握中国近 90% 的网约车市场份额。其应用程序为用户提供网约车、出租车、顺风车、共享单车、共享电单车、自动驾驶等服务。它也正在涉足一系列其他市场,包括电动汽车充电、汽车维修,甚至是造车等。2020年中国出行业务占到滴滴总收入的94.3%。

从全球范围来看,滴滴在16个国家/地区的近4000个城市开展业务,并在东南亚市场占有重要地位。全球年活跃用户近5亿人,年活跃司机1500万人。

财务状况

在此次IPO之前,滴滴已经获得21轮融资,总额超200亿美元。虽然持续在烧钱,但滴滴仍然连续8年亏损。2018至2020年的净亏损分别为150亿元、97亿元和106亿元。不过今年第一季度扭亏为盈,实现净利润55亿元(主要来自于投资收益)。在经历了艰难的2020年之后,这是一个非常积极的信号。

投资回报超软银?

普通投资者的投资回报率可能超过软银?这不是痴人说梦!

滴滴的主要机构股东包括软银的愿景基金(21.5%),Uber(12.8%)和腾讯(6.8%)。根据招股书,软银的持股平均成本约为12.7美元,这意味着即使按照此次定价区间的上限14美元计算,孙正义的投资收益率仅为10%,若以年化计算则更低。这对二级市场投资者或者差价合约交易来说并不是遥不可及的目标。

滴滴前景

就在此次IPO前夕,中国正在对大型科技公司展开反垄断调查,同时还在研究网约车服务定价的透明度。另外,鉴于滴滴在重要市场的份额接近饱和,以及来自规模较小竞争对手的压力不断增加,滴滴当前的业务扩张速度恐怕难以为继。当补贴逐渐减少之后,如何留住司机和用户也是巨大的考验。

所有这些不确定性对交易者来说意味着一件事:潜在的做空机会。如果您也持有类似观点,不妨通过Pepperstone进行交易。敬请期待更多关于滴滴上市的更新。


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