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Analysis
兩者月線幾乎收平，而納斯達克則累計下跌2%。月末的反彈體現出市場中逢低買入的力量、月末再平衡的需要、以及最重要的對於加息路徑和經濟衰退的重新計價。
標普500多頭的下一個目標是4270附近，這裏是趨勢線和均線匯合區域。能否順利突破還需要更多利好因素的支持，其中最重要的就是波動率的回落。
目前標普30天和60天實際波動率為疫情爆發之初以來的最高水平，隱含波動率（VIX指數）持續高位震蕩，這顯然打擊到了投資者的信心，導致市場流動性低迷，從而進一步放大價格波動，形成惡性循環。循環不破，做多力量就難以湧現，現在的熊市反彈終將成為下一波拋售的起點。一個比較樂觀的跡象是美債波動率（MOVE指數）在整個5月持續回落，這或許能傳導至股市緩和悲觀情緒。
長期來看，企業盈利增速的預期將成為關鍵。今年第一季度標普的EPS同比增速僅為8.2%，去年三四季度為30%左右，而去年一二季度分別達到50%和90%。更令人擔憂的是，亞馬遜，沃爾瑪，Meta等龍頭股紛紛發出業績預警，導致標普的盈利預期一直在向下修正。
中國5月PMI較4月有小幅回升且好於預期。但相比於經濟數據，更振奮人心的消息無疑是上海的復工復產。過去幾個月的數據註定不如人意，但預計從第三季度開始將逐漸好轉。股市是向前看的，目前反映出的正是這種預期。
上圖顯示納斯達克中國金龍指數、恒生科技和恒生指數均已突破了50天均線，扭轉去年年初以來的長期下行趨勢變得愈發現實。同樣的走勢也出現在滬深300、A50（CN50）等指數以及阿裏巴巴、騰訊等個股上。
與美股的高位回落不同，中概股本身就長時間徘徊在底部區域。估值、宏觀面、貨幣政策、以及市場情緒等因素繼續惡化的可能性不大，因此長期來看上方空間更具吸引力。
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