Launch webtrader
Ways to trade
Platforms
Markets & Symbols
Analysis
Learn to Trade
Pepperstone Pro
Partners
About us
Help and support
美國40年來最高的通脹壓力已經不僅僅是美國民眾、美聯儲和拜登政府的問題,這正在深刻的影響到全球經濟前景和不同資產類別的價格走勢。
在數據出爐的前夜,投資者采取了防禦性動作。美股先跌為敬,三大股指遭遇了5月中旬以來的最大跌幅。10年期收益率站穩3%上方,避險情緒刺激美元指數站上103關口,非美貨幣全線下跌,黃金的多空雙方則繼續處於觀望狀態。
XAUUSD 4H
市場預計本次CPI的同比增速會從8.3%降至8.2%,分析師給出的預測區間為8%-8.5%。核心CPI預計從6.2%降至5.9%。值得註意的是,在過去10次的CPI數據中,有9次都是好於預期的。
考慮到此前美國4月的CPI和核心CPI都出現了增速放緩跡象,而核心PCE物價指數甚至已經連續兩個月回落。市場中出現了「通脹見頂」的觀點。
但統計數字和實際感受之間或許存在著較大的差異。一方面是原油價格的持續升高導致美國國內的零售汽油均價突破了5美元/加侖,同比增長超過50%。能源價格的上漲還引發了物價全面普漲的格局。與此同時,缺工現象刺激工資繼續保持較高增速、PMI顯示經濟活力復蘇、且消美國費支出依舊強勁(儲蓄率跌至2008年以來最低)。這些因素都使通脹短時間內難以快速降溫。
正因為此,一兩次的通脹數據回落似乎還不足以得出「通脹見頂」的結論。美聯儲預計也將繼續維持其鷹派立場,維持多次50個基點的加息節奏,直到數據出現實質且持續的改善。對於超速行駛的汽車來說,如果剎車踩的晚自然需要踩得更狠。相比於急剎車帶來的風險,失控的結果更為可怕。
從短線來看,如果CPI跌至8%甚至下方,美元將承壓,美股尤其是成長股或將迎來一絲轉機,黃金的多頭力量可能浮現,並推動金價走出當前的窄幅震蕩格局。
如果CPI超出預期,美聯儲的加息將變得更為迫切。美元指數或將繼續受益於緊縮預期和避險情緒維持上行。美/日可能再次沖擊135的20年新高。
在6和7月加息50bp幾乎成為定局的情況下,數據公布後我們需要尤其關註市場對9月份的預期。當然,下周美聯儲的利率決議將會給到我們更多線索。
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..