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Analysis

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US2000

大选过后疫苗之前 美元跌向何处

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
17 Nov 2020
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连续两周有关疫苗进展的消息让市场迅速淡化了美国大选的后续影响。

持续走高的风险偏好帮助全球股市重回疫情前的水平,美股更是再创历史新高,而美元近来则显得暗淡无光。

大选还没结束!?

根据CBS、CNN等多家美国媒体的最新统计,目前所有选举人票的归属已经确认,拜登最终获得了306张选举人票。与此同时,特朗普还保持着“最后的倔强”,不过他的选举官司在多州接连受挫,目前来看想要翻盘几无可能。特朗普上周末在选后的首次公开演讲中似乎降低了此前的强硬姿态。

虽然美国大选最终结果还需等待12月14日选举人团投票和1月6日国会的确认,但目前看来拜登入主白宫只是时间问题。今年美国大选留存的唯一的悬念是佐治亚州1月5日的两个参议员席位的第二轮选举,这将决定谁将最终掌握参议院多数。目前共和党以50比48席暂时保持领先。

拜登能否治愈美国?

辉瑞和Moderna两款疫苗90%以上的有效性对于深陷新冠疫情打击的美国来讲无疑是惊天利好。虽然在审批、物流、分发等缓解还存在诸多不确定性,但至少在经过近一年的煎熬之后,已经看到了“隧道尽头的光”。

疫苗或许可以抵御疾病,但拜登能否治愈美国呢?

本次大选可以说是美国史上投票人数最多,耗费资金最贵,同时也是最为分裂的选举。拜登获得了超过7500万张普选票,为史上最高。而落败的特朗普也获得了7200万张,远高于此前奥巴马保持的6900万张的记录。

通过下图的出口民调数据可以发现,两位候选人的支持者泾渭分明。女性群体、有色人种、年轻人以及拥有高学历的选民普遍支持拜登,而“老白男”及低学历选民则是特朗普的铁粉。与上述人口结构相符的情况是,如果点开美国全国或者任意州的选举地图,可以发现大片在中西部以及各州的偏远地区有大片的红色,而东西海岸和各州的都市地区则以蓝色为主。

美国大选出口民调数据 来源:Edison Research, BBC

除了美国人口结构的变化和迁徙之外,特朗普所推崇的“白人至上主义”也使得美国在疫情肆虐、经济衰退的同时不得不面对种族矛盾和社会撕裂的考验。

如果考虑到国会和参议院同样面临的分裂的局面,想要治愈美国的拜登在立法、行政等各方面或将遭遇巨大掣肘。

美股走势解读

大选过后的社会撕裂暂且留给政客和时间去弥合,美国股市已经对疫苗的进展给出了积极的反应。

我们在上周的文章《大选效应未褪 疫苗突破再度点燃全球股市》中分析道,疫苗的利好带动美债收益率走高,同时收益率曲线也变得更为陡峭,因此加速了板块之间的轮动。前期涨幅较低的小盘股、价值股的表现普遍好于大盘股和成长股。

而这一趋势目前还在延续。而拜登团队表示不会采取全国性封锁,为多头注入了额外的信心。

大家可以点击了解更多关于本周美股以及货币市场的展望。

美元跌向何处

美元的避险买盘在大选尘埃落定以及疫苗取得进展之后有所降温。目前美元指数(USDX)处于震荡下行的过程中。从月线图来看,指数已接近上升通道的下沿,9月低点91.72将是关键的支撑位,若失守则将开启一波更大幅度的下跌,或将进一步看低至88.14。

在《美元或在“蓝色浪潮”中沉沦》中我们提到了美元选后的悲观前景。展望未来,美元依然面临诸多考验。

首先,拜登当选之后,扩大刺激规模以及国际贸易局势的缓和将增加美国的财政和贸易双赤字。其次,全球最大的地区性自贸协议RCEP的签署也将再次提振风险偏好,削弱美元在区域贸易中的吸引力,甚至可能动摇美元在国际结算体系中的低位。另外,由于疫苗何时能大规模投放尚不得而知,面对不断恶化的疫情和经济数据,在权力过渡期缺少财政刺激的情况下,美联储将再次被推向聚光灯下。

美联储可能在12月的政策会议上宣布更多宽松措施(如增加购债规模、调整债券组合期限和构成等),借此实现9月提出的2%平均通胀这一目标。这同时也符合目前全球主要央行不断开闸放水的总体趋势。面对近期升高的长端收益率,美联储甚至能通过“收益率曲线控制”这一大招来压低相应期限的收益率,进而压低美元汇率,而这是提升通胀的必然选择。

弱势的美元也意味着黄金、澳纽等非美货币有望获得持续的利好支撑。

通过Pepperstone,您可以以最低0点差交易黄金、主流货币对,股指、股票CFD等产品。


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