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Analysis

US500
Oil
GBP

无惧疫情!跨年行情进行中

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
30 Dec 2021
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全球范围内的单日新增疫情再创新高,但这对投资者的信心和热情却没有造成任何影响。各资产类别延续着红红火火的跨年行情。

标普500年内第70次创下收盘记录新高,可以说今年不是在创造新高(将近1/3的时间)就是在创造新高的路上。

标普500(US500)

道琼斯同样收在历史高点。由于各期限的美债收益率回升,纳斯达克指数周三小幅回落。三大指数今年的累计涨幅分别为27%、22%和19%。

尽管疫情的数字节节攀升,但越来越多的数据显示Omicron的感染者以轻症为主,也并没像去年那样对医疗体系造成严重冲击。在消化了美联储明年加息的预期之后,市场的风险情绪在年底前再度升高。

另外,正是基于这种“与疫情共存”的态度,欧美民众在假期期间的出行热情格外高涨,需求端的复苏令美国上周的商业原油、战略原油、汽油、精炼油等库存大幅降低。WTI原油的价格六连阳后反弹至76.84,布伦特原油触及80大关。欧洲的天然气危机以及下个月OPEC+的产量政策将决定油价是否能进一步回升。

WTI

黄金周三一度下探1807,但最终收复大部分失地收于1804.38。收益率的上升和美元指数的走弱令金价延续着这段时间以来的多空均衡态势。值得注意的是,在过去的10年,金价在12月23至1月3日期间的平均涨幅有1.6%,而同期的标普500仅有0.6%。黄金的跨年行情更指的期待?

外汇市场方面,大部分G10货币周三兑美元都录得涨幅,其中英镑涨幅领跑。英国的10年期收益率再次站上1%的关口。在汇价正冲击通道上轨的同时,我们也需要留意技术指标在小级别周期上已经出现的背离现象。

欧元仍旧处于底部1.1230-1.1360的盘整阶段,而商品货币的加元、纽元和澳元则延续反弹势头。



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