Analysis
1.20成欧元分水岭
近几日的下跌主要是受到了美元指数（USDX）超卖后反弹的影响，但欧元区内部疲弱的经济数据也同样加速了欧元的抛售。欧元区8月CPI年率自2016年以来首次下跌，同时7月失业率升高7.9%，而各成员国8月制造业PMI数据好坏不一，再结合疫情的二次爆发，欧元区的经济复苏前景不容乐观。
雪上加霜的是，欧洲央行首席经济学家连恩表示“欧/美的汇率非常重要”，此番言论被视为欧元上涨至1.20已经超出了预期，引起了欧洲央行的不安。汇率过度升值会打压进口商品价格，不利于抬升通胀。而多年来，欧元区的通胀率一直未能达到略低于2%的目标。
因此我们需要关注下周四的欧洲央行政策会议，看拉加德如何表达对欧元汇率和通胀的看法。市场预期欧洲央行会采取更多行动，如鼓励大型机构（保险公司或养老基金）减少手中创记录高位的欧元头寸。
从日线图上看，5月中旬开始的上升趋势依旧完好，并且汇价正处于8月初开始的上升通道当中。上行的首要阻力在1.1966，汇价在冲高1.20之前曾在8月18日和31日两次在此处折戟。若能击穿1.1966的双顶，则能巩固看涨趋势，进而看高至1.20以及1.2130/50区域。
尽管20天均线平坦运行，暂时缺乏方向性，但RSI指标的顶背离暗示价格短线回落的风险。下行方向有多个关键支撑位值得留意。首先是1.1785，这里是8月初以来上升通道的下沿。其次是1.1714/25一带，这里是布林带下轨和23.6%回档线的汇合区域。若下破，则进一步看低至8月低点1.1695。从隐含波动率角度来看，本周欧元很难跌穿1.1695。
总的来看，目前欧元汇价中性偏空，其走势主要由美元驱动。若下周欧洲央行的声明足够鸽派，我们可能看到更多的欧元抛售。
随着美联储引入“平均通胀目标”并致力于长期维持低利率和弱势美元，各国央行迫于无奈只能采取更多行动压低本国汇率，避免过度升值拖累经济复苏。昨天澳洲联储利率决议已经传递了类似的担忧。一场“货币冷战”或许正在酝酿之中。
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