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Analysis

Gold

Gold - using options to guide a mean reversion strategy

Chris Weston
Chris Weston
Head of Research
15 Sept 2021
We’ve been waiting for a break of the -1.0% to -1.1% range in US TIPS and one suspects when we do see a break it will marry with a corresponding move in XAUUSD too.

15_09_2021_C1.png

(Source: Tradingview - Past performance is not indicative of future performance.)

As it stands, the weekly (options) straddle breakeven range sits at 1827 to 1780 – with the market putting a 68.2% probability that price is contained in this range over the coming week - you can also see both levels marry nicely with the 7 September high and series of bids through August - September. This is the range mean reversion players can look at near-term.

We saw price having a bullish engulfing yesterday, but there's not been any follow-through at the 50% retracement of the recent range. Are we looking at reversal and price eyeing a re-test towards 1780? I suspect so, but with the RSI mid-range and real rates showing no clear trend – Gold is likely to whip around in an 1827 to 1780 range for now and traders may lean into these levels for positions. Ready to trade the potential opportunity? Trade it with Pepperstone.

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