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纽约联储的最新调查显示，居民对于未来一年和三年的通胀预期中数位下降至5.7%和2.8%，虽然仍大幅高于疫情前的低点，但比起峰值已经有显著的回落。今晚的8月通胀数据可能会显现出类似的趋势。
此次CPI的预测区间在7.9%-8.3%之间，相比于前两个月的9.1%和8.5%，可以看出通胀增速放缓是大概率事件。通胀率预计环比下跌0.1%，这可能是2020年5月年以来的首次跌幅，并有望帮助CPI同比从8.5%降至8.1%。
若通胀年率跌破8%有望延续股市、黄金和欧元的反弹，并令美元承压，哪怕核心通胀率仍然在6%以上。若数值高于8.4%，股指的涨势或将暂时消退，近期的走势可能遭遇逆转。
尽管通胀放缓是目前的主流观点，但美联储9月加息75个基点的概率还维持在90%左右，终端利率预计在4%以上。在美联储鹰派立场没有改变之前，标普500看上去很难突破4250，大宗商品也难以真正回归升势。
隔夜市场中，随着美元指数出现拐点，非美货币也纷纷趁势反弹，脱离多年的低点。欧元周一收盘已经逼近通道上轨1.0200，盘中触及一个月高点。
EURUSD
欧洲央行的鹰派呼声是重要的利多。随着美国通胀逐渐降温而欧洲物价继续攀升，两地的货币政策差异正在逐渐缩小，或许已经不再构成欧元贬值的因素了。另外，近期天然气价格的连续回落也提振了欧元的短期走势。
黄金受益于美元的调整回到了1720上方，没有形成更低的低点令多头稍感欣慰，1745是上方的下一个目标。白银昨天涨幅超过5%逼近20美元关口，能否顺势突破还需要关注今晚的通胀数据。
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