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Analysis
美联储全年加息5次的预期已经逐步被市场所接受，但这只是众多收紧货币政策的央行之一，甚至都不是最为鹰派的。目前的利率市场显示，新西兰联储今年将有7.5次的加息幅度，加拿大6.4次，英国5次，澳洲4.6次。
央行行长们将如何制定加息路径，何时开始缩减资产负债表，对于高通胀又持有怎样的态度？交易者可以从每一次的央行政策会议中寻找蛛丝马迹。
有意思的是，今天晚些时候，英国央行和欧洲央行将在非常短的时间窗口内先后公布利率决议，这就使得欧元、英镑以及交叉货币对的短线走势变得格外引人关注。
作为疫情后首个加息的主要央行，英国央行今天加息的概率几乎为100%，非常有希望完成“背靠背”的第二次加息。但市场显然已经充分消化了这一预期，因此加息本身很难给汇价造成太大的波动。
关键在于央行是否会暗示3月或5月再次加息，以及对全年加息和缩表进程的展望。鹰派的言论有望帮助处在两周高点的英镑延续反弹势头。不过值得注意的是，英国央行过去两次的利率决议均与市场预期背道而驰（11月按兵不动，12月宣布加息），可见其难以预测性。
欧洲央行的看点在于对欧元区创纪录的5.1%的通胀率将做出怎么样的反应。如果鸽派的基调有所松动，或者对今年年底前加息持开放态度，或许可以帮助欧元进一步挑战1.1400一线。然而考虑到与其他主要央行政策的背离，欧元想要突破长期趋势线的压制并不容易。
EURUSD
在两家央行先后表态之后，我们也可以同时关注EURGBP的机会。虽然无法精准预测价格反应，但该货币对单日隐含波动率已经升至了12个月高位，交易者显然需要为大幅波动做好准备。
EURGBP
若汇价跌穿0.8305（2016至今的水平支撑）可能会开启新一段的下行趋势。但日线图上在阶段性底部区域所形成的背离给多头提供了潜在的机会，上行方向首先关注0.8359一线。
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