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Analysis
ADP数据显示，美国7月私营部门新增就业人口仅有33万，连预期的一半都没到，6月的数据也被下修至68万。糟糕的数据使得本周五的非农变得扑朔迷离。
就业是美联储最为看重的因素，如果就业市场复苏放缓，显然将延缓美联储货币政策正常化的进程，即继续维持低利率环境。因此在数据出炉之后，黄金一度冲上1831.72，逼近前期的双顶1733一线。
XAUUSD H4
不过好景不长，随后的服务业PMI创下历史新高的64.1，再加上美联储副主席一番鹰派的言论（支持今年缩减购债，2023年加息），金价几乎回吐了日内20美元左右的涨幅，最终收于1811.83。
由于名义和实际利率都持续在低位运行，理论上金价应该有更出色的表现。但在4小时图上，金价昨天再次确认了上方1833附近的阻力。尽管长期均线和RSI都显示多空仍然焦灼，但关键阻力位久攻不破之后，多头显然备受打击，而空头的力量可能随着美元的反弹而进一步积聚。下行方向首先关注1807附近的支撑，随后是1789/95的区域。
对美元指数（USDX）来说，除了数据和美联储言论的支撑，期货市场中投机性仓位已经由净空头转变为中性，指数有望在非农出炉之前再次测试92.50。
在周五的非农之前，今天市场的焦点是英国央行的货币政策会议。
英国央行与美联储一样，认为通胀只是暂时的现象。但不同的是，他们已经在5月宣布了缩减购债的计划，将单周购债速度从44亿英镑降至34亿英镑，这使得英国央行成为了继加拿大之后全球第二家宣布缩表的主要央行。
鉴于英国完全解封后新增病例奇迹般的下降，央行在本次会议上很可能上调经济增速和通胀预期，但是否会进一步削减购债甚至结束QE存在疑问，毕竟“强制带薪休假”计划（Furlough scheme）将于9月底到期，央行可能需要更多时间来观察经济的表现。
如果此次有多名委员投票赞成结束QE，英镑或将获得提振，不过这一情况的门槛相对较高。
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