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Analysis
市場普遍預期本次非農報告新增88萬就業人口（預測區間為35-120萬），失業率降至5.7%，平均時薪增長0.3%。
我們試圖從同期的一些經濟數據中來對非農作一番推測。積極的因素包括了：續請失業金人數降至疫情前水平；製造業和服務業PMI的就業分類指數雙雙上漲（從萎縮至擴張）；挑戰者裁員人數降至20年來最低；消費者信心指數上升等。較為悲觀的因素則是本周的ADP大幅遜於預期。但是其實很長時間以來，ADP和非農之間的相關性並不高，因此談不上是一個較好的參考指標。
理論上來看，接近預測區間上限的數據可能會激發市場對於未來收緊貨幣政策的預期，導致收益率回升，帶動美元上漲並壓低金價。這種情況下，同樣可以關註美/日測試110，歐元跌破1.18，以及美國銀行股上升的可能性。
若就業報告大幅遜於預期，有理由相信美聯儲會進一步推遲縮減購債並繼續維持寬松的環境，那麽上述的思路可能需要反轉，屆時金價有望再次挑戰1833一線並伺機突破。
XAUUSD H4
英國央行昨天以7：1的投票比例同意維持當前8750億英鎊的購債規模不變，並大幅上調了通脹預期。更關鍵的是，央行對於未來的貨幣政策收緊的路徑做出了更清晰的闡述，表示在利率達到0.5%時停止債券再投資，當利率達到1%時減持債券。鷹派的立場幫助英鎊走強至1.3928。
商品貨幣昨天受益於風險情緒的改善和油價的回升集體上揚，其中澳元漲幅領跑G0貨幣。美元指數（USDX）則持平於92.23。
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