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Analysis

AUD
NZD
US500

美股集體上揚 澳紐再成焦點

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
4 Aug 2021
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就在席卷A股和港股的監管風暴尚未明朗之際,美國的三大股指卻在非農公布之前集體上揚,而澳元和紐元再度成為焦點。

由於官媒昨天“點名”千億市值的遊戲產業,騰訊、網易等股價隨即暴跌,拖累了恒生和恒生科技指數。

此外,阿裏巴巴昨天公布了二季度財報,雖然年度活躍消費者增長至11.8億,但營收不及預期,利潤也因為繳納罰款和新業務擴張而同比下降,大部分主營業務增速放緩。作為最早受到監管壓力的互聯網巨頭之一,阿裏巴巴所承受的壓力可見一斑。

其美股股價昨天下跌1.35%至197.38,延續近來的跌勢。

Alibaba(BABA)

中國科技股的苦日子還沒有到頭?對此我們在昨天的《港股續跌!“風暴”再起?》中做了詳細的分析。

美國三大股指昨天集體上漲,其中標普500收盤再創新高。盡管經濟數據喜憂參半,但強勁的財報數據讓投資者暫時忽略疫情等一些負面消息的影響。

本周的重頭戲是周五的非農數據。美聯儲政策的調整很大程度上將取決於就業市場的復蘇。市場預期本次是增加90萬個工作崗位,失業率降至5.7%。如果新增超過100萬可能再度引起投資者對於縮減購債的預期,從而給股市帶來一定波動。今晚出爐的ADP報告或許能為非農提供一定的參考。

對標普500指數來說,有幾個潛在的隱患,如美國經濟數據高峰已經過去;8-9月份是傳統的美股疲軟月份;指數近10個月沒有出現過10%的調整;技術指標的背離;以及疫情等。

US500

貨幣市場中,商品貨幣無疑是昨天的焦點。

澳元昨天最高觸及0.74。澳洲聯儲維持縮減購債的決定(9月開始從每周50億降至40億澳元)不變出乎了很多人的意料,畢竟悉尼的封鎖已經被迫延長了一個月。短線澳元有繼續反彈的動能,但0.75附近預計會遭遇一定阻力。

相比澳洲聯儲,新西蘭聯儲更為鷹派,表示考慮收緊抵押貸款政策,並透露8月加息的可能性。最新數據顯示,新西蘭第一季度失業率從4.7%大幅下降至4%。紐元一舉突破0.7050,朝著200天均線大步邁進。另外AUDNZD的下行趨勢預計仍將持續。

NZDUSD

美元指數(USDX)和歐元幾乎與前日持平。英國央行將於明天公布利率決議,是否進一步加速縮表(尤其是委員的投票結果)以及通脹預期都將成為焦點。

由於美債收益率和美元指數相對穩定,黃金昨天僅小幅下跌至1810。實際利率新低並沒能轉化為金價的上行突破讓多頭感到沮喪,這也顯示出市場目前缺乏對黃金的興趣。不進則退,空頭暫時占據主動權,關註1789/95的支撐區域。突破1933後才有望重拾升勢。

WTI原油連續第二天下挫,跌破50天均線後逼近70美元關口。Delta病毒的蔓延以及中美經濟復蘇放緩都令投資者對原油需求前景感到擔憂。



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