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Analysis

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年末大戏收官!美欧英央行决议解读!

Jerry Chen
Jerry Chen
Research Strategist
17 Dec 2021
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美国、欧洲和英国央行今年最后一次利率决议尘埃落定。虽然各自都有着不同的立场,但货币市场的走势多少还是有点出人意料。

美元指数为什么在美联储鹰派声明后不升反将?

我们在之前的前瞻中提到了本次美联储会议的三个看点,即通胀、缩表以及加息路径。

具体来看,美联储删除了通胀“暂时性”的措辞,并上调未来几年的通胀预测中位数,同时继续看好就业市场的复苏。另外,将从明年1月起加速缩减购债(每月减少300亿美元),量化宽松于3月底结束。点阵图显示,18名委员中有12人预测2022年至少加息3次,而2022-2024的预计加息幅度比利率期货市场所隐含的路径要更为激进。

美联储12月点阵图

在引导市场预期方面,美联储这次的操作堪称典范。提前的沟通让市场有充足的时间来适应和调整,避免了政策出炉后的大幅波动或者混乱的局面。这也解释了为什么美元在鹰派会议声明后没有延续升势,因为这些内容早已被充分消化。

虽然美元指数短线回落,但从更长的周期来看,美联储与其他主要央行的政策立场差异有望提振各期限美债收益率(尤其是短端如2年期),并帮助美元继续保持相对优势和吸引力。

欧洲央行温和立场为何刺激欧元反弹?

欧元的短线反弹的背后有着美元走弱,空头回补等原因,央行的“柔中带刚”也是关键因素。

欧洲央行一方面认为通胀率在中期会回落至2%的目标下方,疫情对经济的影响还无法确定,因此2022年几乎不可能加息。但同时也已经规划了逐步退出宽松计划的路径,即明年一季度开始减少“疫情紧急购买计划”(PEPP)项下的购债并于3月结束,同时“资产购买计划”(APP)有一个先增后减的过程以提供缓冲,使得过渡期更为平稳顺滑。

理论上,欧洲和美国央行的政策差异和疫情扩散仍将是笼罩在欧元上方的阴霾。关注空头是否会在1.1380以及1.1525等前高卷土重来。

英国央行为何再次”失信“于市场?

英国央行的可信度再次遭遇了考验。11月的按兵不动(投票比例为7-2)与市场意愿相悖,汇价遭遇重挫。而周四的加息(投票比例8-1)再次令市场措手不及,帮助汇价延续反弹至1.3322。从技术面来看,汇价在一年低点附近出现了筑底企稳迹象。

英国11月的CPI同比上升5.1%,为10年来最高同比增速,远高于分析师预期和央行2%的目标。央行预计CPI明年最高将达到6%左右。通胀压力是央行此次果断出手的最主要原因。目前市场预计明年2月还有15个基点的加息,全年有88bp的加息幅度。

若英国的防疫措施不再升级,英镑的前景会比欧元更为明朗,适当关注欧磅的空头机会。



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