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Analysis
美國6月CPI飆升至9.1%，高於預期的8.8%和前值8.6%。其中能源價格同比增長了41%，是物價上漲最大的推動力。令人稍微感到欣慰的是核心CPI（剔除能源和食品後）連續第三個月下降，但仍然高於預期。
盡管國際油價已經進入了下行趨勢，但通脹壓力不降反升，這讓美聯儲的7月底的大幅加息板上釘釘。
壓力不僅來自內部，也來自同行。加拿大央行昨天意外宣布加息1%，令市場錯愕，此前預期僅為50或75bp。官方說法是希望通過加息前置來盡快遏製通脹，避免經濟硬著陸。加拿大的做法預計會引來其他央行的效仿。同樣的措辭理由似乎也適用於美聯儲。在經濟尚能承受的時候必須快刀斬亂麻。反之，加息越晚，效果越有限。
兩周後美聯儲加息100個基點的概率已經超過75%，而在CPI數據出爐之前只有10%。加息過猛可能導致的直接後果就是經濟衰退。2/10年的收益率曲線出現了2000年以來最大程度的倒掛，令人擔憂。
圖：美國收益率曲線 (2/10s) 倒掛暗示經濟衰退風險
美國三大股指昨天全線回落。今天開始，焦點將轉向第二季度財報。銀行股周四將打響頭陣，高峰將會在7月25日那周到來，當周發布財報的公司總市值占據標普500半壁江山。二季度標普500的EPS增速預計放緩至4.3%，這可能是2020年Ｑ４以來最慢的增長。而３月末的時候預測是5.9％。EPS預期的進一步下修是股市潛在的利空因素。
美元指數小幅下跌，但依然維持在20多年高點，看漲勢頭不變。但若100個基點加息預期落空，指數可能出現回調。關註周五零售銷售數據的預期的影響。
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