- English
- 中文版
- Launch webtrader
Launch webtrader
- Ways to trade
Ways to trade
- Platforms
Platforms
- Markets & Symbols
Markets & Symbols
- Analysis
Analysis
- Learn to Trade
Learn to Trade
- Pepperstone Pro
Pepperstone Pro
- Partners
Partners
- About us
About us
- Help and support
Help and support
Analysis
7月CPI同比增速從9.1%降至8.5%，環比從1.3%降至0%；核心CPI同比從6.1%降至5.9%，環比從0.7%降至0.3%。
數據顯示通脹開始退燒，令市場稍稍松了口氣，但一個月的數據並不能形成趨勢。其實仔細觀察可以發現，能源價格在7月環比下跌4.6%（其中汽油-7.7%），以一己之力抵消了食品、住房成本、醫療、新車等價格的延續上漲。整體通脹是否能朝著美聯儲2%的目標持續邁進還存在很大的不確定性，尤其是考慮到勞動力市場仍然非常強勁且工資增速維持在5%以上。
從利率市場的反映來看，對於未來的通脹和加息前景還是比較謹慎的。9月加息75個基點的概率還在40%以上，明年3月的終端利率峰值仍舊在3.6%以上，同時明年50個基點的降息預期也沒有改變。各期限的美債收益率（尤其是短端的2年期）的跌幅並不明顯。
不過股市和匯市的參與者顯然有不同的看法。
美國三大股指昨天強勢上漲，納斯達克100指數更是突破了關鍵趨勢線的壓製，從6月低點累計反彈了20%進入了技術性牛市。科技股對通脹和加息預期的變化是最為敏感的。
美元指數遭遇重挫，跌破50天均線後來到通道下軌，顯示出外匯交易員押註通脹見頂且FED放緩加息步伐。指數若跌穿該支撐恐將大幅下行。在美元疲弱的情況下，非美貨幣乘勝追擊。其中紐元、澳元漲幅接近2%，歐元和英鎊的漲幅在1%左右。
美元指數（USDX）
黃金昨天短暫觸及1807（6-7月跌勢的61.8%回檔位）後收盤跌至1792，今天盤中延續回落，這顯示出市場對通脹前景還沒有形成一致預期。短線跌宕起伏的走勢過後，市場可能需要時間來消化通脹數據的影響並確立新的方向。
Related articles
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..