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當然,昨晚大家最為關註並不是市場價格,而是一位來自美國80高齡老奶奶的行蹤。避險需求導致黃金一度沖高至一個月高點1787,但隨著美元的反彈,金價收盤回落至1761附近。目前看起來,這一事件並沒有給全球金融市場帶來太明顯的沖擊,但後續效應有待觀察。
真正影響隔夜市場走勢的是美聯儲的態度。多位委員表示美國通脹還很頑固,加息還遠沒有結束,這給此前押註加息放緩的預期澆了一盆冷水。從下圖可以看出,美元指數(USDX)在通道底部和50天均線位置出現反彈。若能突破近兩周的整理區間,指數有望延續升勢。
美元指數(USDX)
美元反彈、美債收益率走高,再加上財報表現欠佳,讓美國三大股指周二承壓。標普500指數在100天均線附近遭遇阻力。由於美聯儲的態度變得難以揣摩,多頭自然缺乏進一步推高股指的信心。雖然過去兩周股市從底部反彈,但經濟正在步入衰退,熊市也不會瞬間結束,反彈之路不會一帆風順。
標普500指數(US500)
今晚OPEC+會議將公布9月的產量決議。由於OPEC+在7和8月的會議上已經小幅增加了增產目標,並且實際產能一直遠低於既定目標,另外需求端也受到衰退的困擾,因此今天預計將維持產量不變。
從價格來看,若產能維持不變,布倫特油價或將鞏固當前的價格水平,若小幅增產則可能延續下行趨勢。WTI原油也會有相同的走勢,但同時還會受到美國原油庫存數據的影響。
WTI
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