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首要的原因是美聯儲的政策預期發生了微妙的改變。在連續兩次75個基點的加息之後,鮑威爾暗示未來的加息步伐可能放緩。一方面是由於能源價格在6月以來出現明顯下行壓力,通脹見頂成為了大概率事件,因此沒有必要繼續采取激進的加息策略。二是因為過快加息或將重創經濟,初請失業金人數、房地產數據、PMI、消費者信心指數等不同領域已經亮起了警報。如果在9月FOMC會議之前美聯儲的鷹派立場繼續緩和,美元和美債基準收益率(10年期收益率已經出現頭肩頂形態)將有望進一步回落,這將利好於黃金。
技術形態上,1680成為了從2020年以來多次測試但從未跌破的支撐水平,暫時可以認為是階段性的底部。而從4小時圖或更小級別的走勢圖來看,金價在1680附近出現了看漲吞噬形態以及RSI指標的背離,增加了反彈的可信度。多頭的下一個目標將瞄準1780附近,這裏是6月以來下降趨勢的50%的斐波那契回檔位,也是此前的支撐阻力轉換位。突破後有望沖擊1800大關即50%回檔位。
XAUUSD 4H
另外值得註意的是,金價目前低於50天均線的百分比已經達到長期平均水平的下方的兩倍標準差附近。從均值回歸的角度來看,金價往往會在這裏回升,一定程度去修正較大的偏離程度。
當然,我們也需要留意技術指標的超買信號,耐心等待最合適的入場時機。但總體來看,目前看漲黃金的風險/回報比還是很有吸引力的。
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