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Analysis
我们在昨天的文章中提到的1.0640的小目标已经达成，且周线图上在5年低点位置形成了看涨吞噬形态，欧元多头的下一个目标将瞄向1.0770一线，这里是50天均线、3月以来跌势的50%回档位，以及4月低点的汇合区域。若能有效突破将进一步看高至1.0936。
EURUSD
由于欧元区通胀达到了创纪录的7.4%，且俄乌局势仍然不明朗，压低通胀已经刻不容缓。近来有越来越多的欧洲央行官员呼吁尽快加息，而欧洲央行主席拉加德昨天的表态更为明确。她表示央行已经准备好在6月结束QE，7月开启加息，并在9月前退出负利率政策（目前存款利率为-0.5%）。利率市场显示，欧洲央行年底前将加息110个基点，即在从7月开始的每一次会议上都至少加息25个基点。
就在欧洲央行不断暗示加息的同时，美联储的鹰派程度似乎已经达到顶峰。市场出现了2023-2024年降息的揣测，美联储官员博斯蒂克更是认为，在连续50bp的加息之后需要在9月暂停加息以评估市场反映和通胀环境。此消彼长之下，此前一直困扰着欧元的欧美货币政策差异正在缩小。
同样收窄的还有欧美利差。下图显示德国和美国的10年期实际利率的利差（白线）已经升至-1.5%。以此为参照，EURUSD（蓝线）应该还有进一步上升的空间。
当然，欧元的反弹也并非一帆风顺。如果美股继续下跌恐慌蔓延，或者本周的经济数据和会议纪要再次巩固对美联储加息的预期，美元的买盘自然会重新涌现并使欧元承压。
从更长周期来看，欧元仍然处在长达一年的下行趋势当中，且面临着诸多不确定性。欧洲的地缘政治，能源危机、经济前景、内部分歧以及资本外流等问题都颇为棘手，这也是很多人预测欧元会跌至与美元平价的原因。
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