- English
- 中文版
- Launch webtrader
Launch webtrader
- Ways to trade
Ways to trade
- Platforms
Platforms
- Markets & Symbols
Markets & Symbols
- Analysis
Analysis
- Learn to Trade
Learn to Trade
- Pepperstone Pro
Pepperstone Pro
- Partners
Partners
- About us
About us
- Help and support
Help and support
Analysis
在本周的杰克逊霍尔央行年会之前，避险情绪明显占据了主导，VIX指数跳升至24。美国三大股指昨天全线下滑，标普500所有板块全部收跌。美国10年期收益率一个月以来首次站上3%的关口，让科技股普遍承压，成为大盘最大的拖累。对标普500（US500）的来说，若今天跌穿6月低点以来的反弹通道，则意味着单边上扬行情的结束，下行风险升高。
欧元比预想中更快的跌破了平价水平，刷新20年新低至0.9942。这一次恐怕会出现比7月中旬更深的跌幅。欧洲天然气期货价格上涨13%升至历史新高，欧元区最大经济体德国的电力价格达到创纪录的710欧元/兆瓦时。更糟糕的是，俄罗斯表示月底将短暂关闭北溪1号管道的输气。为了缓解缺电缺气的窘境，德国总理去到了加拿大谈液化天然气的进口。不过由于双方都缺乏必要的基础设施建设，远水显然救不了近火。
另外，下图显示意大利和德国的10年期国债利差飙升了近100bp（+40%）至3.26%。在艰难抗击通胀的同时，意大利借贷成本的升高或将酝酿欧元区的下一个危机。
在出现明显的反转信号之前，看空欧元仍是市场主流。周五鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的演讲一旦释放鹰派信号，对欧元又将是致命一击。
中国央行昨天如期降低了一年期和五年期的贷款基准利率（LPR），USDCNH延续升势刷新两年新高，这也是刺激美元走强的非常重要的原因。
USDCNH
黄金连续六天下跌，在美元强势且收益率走高的背景下，逢高做空或许会更有把握一些。若金价回到1745上方则可以关注短线反弹可能。
今天欧元区、英国、美国将会分别公布8月PMI数据，同时我们需要继续关注能源价格、收益率走势对风险情绪的影响。
Related articles
Ready to trade?
It's quick and easy to get started. Apply in minutes with our simple application process.
The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted..