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Analysis
本周开局市场大体上还是延续着上周五的走势，大家应该还在消化鲍威尔演讲中的鹰派信号。美国三大股指续跌，其中科技股还是重灾区。黄金最低下探1720，美元指数（USDX）短暂突破109关口后收于108.55，英镑和日元等跌跌不休。
利率市场预测9月美联储加息69个基点，明年终端利率达到3.84%，比上周又进一步升高。比较鹰派的预期在本周五非农之前或许将是市场的主要逻辑。
昨天颇为令人意外的是欧元的反弹，盘中回到平价上方，这在鲍威尔鹰派言论的背景下多实属不易。一方面是因为美元指数未能一口气突破7和8月的双顶，但更主要的原因是欧洲天然气价格大幅下跌15%。欧盟正在考虑对能源市场进行干预和改革，其中就包括了引入电力价格上限的讨论，缓解欧洲国家已经“失控”的能源账单和通胀率。与此同时，德国表示能在9月份提前完成储气量85%的目标。
尽管如此，欧盟所能采取的所有措施都无法扭转能源市场的供需矛盾问题。短线可以关注欧元在0.9910-1.0033的整理区间，在突破上周高点1.0090之前，还是保持看空观点。今天将有欧元区8月经济景气指数和德国8月CPI等数据出炉。
美元兑离岸人民币（USDCNH）两年来首次突破6.91。下图显示，美国和中国的两年期国债利差（蓝线）已经刷新多年新高，这反映出两国货币政策的不同，而USDCNH（黄线）则正在向上追赶，破7或许只是时间问题。中国央行自8月中旬以来不仅实施降息，还大调升了美元人民币中间价，似乎是在暗示或引导市场走向。值得注意的是，现在看涨USDCNH有可能同时在汇价和息差两个方向上获利。
国际原油价格继续上扬，伊朗核协议谈判延迟至9月以及OPEC下周可能宣布减产的消息帮助WTI收于近一个月高点97.67。多头的下一个目标显然是100美元，这里是6月以来下降趋势的38.2%的回档位，也是重要的心理关口和50天均线的位置。
WTI (SpotCrude)
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