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Analysis
昨天的纪要主要透露了以下几个信息：1）加息至甚至超过中性水平来压制通胀；2）未来几次会议上加息50bp是合适的；3）现阶段快速退出宽松将为今年晚些时候的“暂停加息”预留出空间，以便美联储届时重新评估甚至调整政策。
如果联想到亚特兰大联储主席波斯蒂奇本周一的观点（9月暂停加息是合理的），美联储的鹰派程度或许真的已经暂时见顶了。说是“暂时”是因为后续如何调整还是要参考通胀数据，比如明天出炉的4月PCE物价指数。
利率市场显示，9月加息50bp的概率已经大幅降至40%左右。股市显然非常欢迎这一改变，尤其是科技股。如果美联储能放缓加息速度，金融状况以及信贷市场自然能出现一定的缓和，这或许能提振标普等股指的走势。但是在整体风险偏下行的市场环境中，反弹的力度和持续性都将被打上问号。
HYG（高收益率债券ETF，蓝色）vs 标普500 （黄色）
值得注意的是，英伟达由于较为悲观的业绩指引导致股价在盘后时间下跌近7%，这可能在今天冲击其他芯片股和科技股的走势。阿里巴巴将在今天美国盘前时间公布财报。
美元近期的回调再加上美联储的这份会议纪要，让黄金多头又看到了些许希望。短线来看，关注金价在小级别周期中的运行通道，若能突破1866将挑战100天均线1885一线。反之则看低至1835附近。
XAUUSD 4H
虽然俄乌局势已经不再是市场的唯一焦点，但能源价格依然非常强劲。WTI原油最近几日持稳在112上方，地缘政治局势以及中国潜在的复苏有望帮助油价继续震荡上行。
天然气价格显然受益于战争和欧美制裁的影响，但目前图中显示出的顶背离以及较长的上影线都暗示着价格回落风险正在升高。
NatGas
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