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Analysis
从4小时图形上来看，金价连续走出四根大阳线，强势突破了1760的关键阻力区域。金价从3月底开始的反弹主要还是得益于美元和美债收益率同期的走弱。10年期收益率一个月来首次跌破1.60%，进一步远离了此前1.77%的一年高位。
很多投资者可能会疑惑，3月美国零售销售大幅好于预期，初请人数降至疫情以来新低，此前的非农和PMI指数也都创阶段性新高，什么在各种利好数据下收益率不涨反跌呢？
我们认为主要有几方面原因。首先，当前的收益率已经提前计价了3月份回暖的经济数据。其次，美债价格大幅下跌之后买家重新入场，需求强劲提振长端收益率走高。本周的国债拍卖可以验证这一观点。另外，通胀并没有真正对市场形成冲击。当1400美元支票的刺激效果褪去之后，通胀率是否能持续回升还存在不确定性。
黄金在收益率下跌的背景下，自然有着靓丽的表现。在走出双底结构后，黄金有望在大级别的下降周期中延续反弹，开启一段长期的升势，最高可能触及1835附近。不过我们可以首先关注上方的1770、1785以及1800等重要关口。近期全球各地的地缘政治风险也在一定程度上为金价形成了支撑。
下行方向，我们需要留意在快速拉升后的回踩确认支撑以及超买的RSI指标。关注1760、1745以及日线级别的布林带中轨1734等位置。
最后顺便提一下美元指数（USDX）。随着经济的继续复苏，收益率重回上升通道仍旧是目前市场中的主流预期，而美联储也正在逐步释放出提前退出宽松政策的信号。从这个角度来看，美元很可能在未来扭转当前的颓势。
日线图上，指数暂时在50天均线附近处获得了支撑。美元是否能就此止住跌势呢？
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