Analysis
经济陷入衰退！黄金或迎来反弹良机！
首要的原因是美联储的政策预期发生了微妙的改变。在连续两次75个基点的加息之后，鲍威尔暗示未来的加息步伐可能放缓。一方面是由于能源价格在6月以来出现明显下行压力，通胀见顶成为了大概率事件，因此没有必要继续采取激进的加息策略。二是因为过快加息或将重创经济，初请失业金人数、房地产数据、PMI、消费者信心指数等不同领域已经亮起了警报。如果在9月FOMC会议之前美联储的鹰派立场继续缓和，美元和美债基准收益率（10年期收益率已经出现头肩顶形态）将有望进一步回落，这将利好于黄金。
技术形态上，1680成为了从2020年以来多次测试但从未跌破的支撑水平，暂时可以认为是阶段性的底部。而从4小时图或更小级别的走势图来看，金价在1680附近出现了看涨吞噬形态以及RSI指标的背离，增加了反弹的可信度。多头的下一个目标将瞄准1780附近，这里是6月以来下降趋势的50%的斐波那契回档位，也是此前的支撑阻力转换位。突破后有望冲击1800大关即50%回档位。
XAUUSD 4H
另外值得注意的是，金价目前低于50天均线的百分比已经达到长期平均水平的下方的两倍标准差附近。从均值回归的角度来看，金价往往会在这里回升，一定程度去修正较大的偏离程度。
当然，我们也需要留意技术指标的超买信号，耐心等待最合适的入场时机。但总体来看，目前看涨黄金的风险/回报比还是很有吸引力的。
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