Analysis
通胀爆表！更多加息箭在弦上！
美国6月CPI飙升至9.1%，高于预期的8.8%和前值8.6%。其中能源价格同比增长了41%，是物价上涨最大的推动力。令人稍微感到欣慰的是核心CPI（剔除能源和食品后）连续第三个月下降，但仍然高于预期。
尽管国际油价已经进入了下行趋势，但通胀压力不降反升，这让美联储的7月底的大幅加息板上钉钉。
压力不仅来自内部，也来自同行。加拿大央行昨天意外宣布加息1%，令市场错愕，此前预期仅为50或75bp。官方说法是希望通过加息前置来尽快遏制通胀，避免经济硬着陆。加拿大的做法预计会引来其他央行的效仿。同样的措辞理由似乎也适用于美联储。在经济尚能承受的时候必须快刀斩乱麻。反之，加息越晚，效果越有限。
两周后美联储加息100个基点的概率已经超过75%，而在CPI数据出炉之前只有10%。加息过猛可能导致的直接后果就是经济衰退。2/10年的收益率曲线出现了2000年以来最大程度的倒挂，令人担忧。
图：美国收益率曲线 (2/10s) 倒挂暗示经济衰退风险
美国三大股指昨天全线回落。今天开始，焦点将转向第二季度财报。银行股周四将打响头阵，高峰将会在7月25日那周到来，当周发布财报的公司总市值占据标普500半壁江山。二季度标普500的EPS增速预计放缓至4.3%，这可能是2020年Ｑ４以来最慢的增长。而３月末的时候预测是5.9％。EPS预期的进一步下修是股市潜在的利空因素。
美元指数小幅下跌，但依然维持在20多年高点，看涨势头不变。但若100个基点加息预期落空，指数可能出现回调。关注周五零售销售数据的预期的影响。
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