Analysis
市场波澜不惊 黄金窄幅震荡
既然市场没有太多热点，那我们首先来看一下各资产类别目前的波动率情况，以便对整体市场走势有一个全局性的判断。下图从上往下分别代表美国利率市场、国债市场、标普500（VIX），以及G7货币的隐含波动率，或者可以理解为是未来的预期波动率。
前两者的波动率均攀升至疫情以来的最高水平，反映出债券市场在通胀率高企情况下的躁动不安（短端的收益率对不断升温的加息预期尤为敏感）。而这种波动似乎有外溢至货币市场的迹象，如我们最近看到的美元的单边上扬和非美货币的跌跌不休。对交易者来说，汇市波动的加剧是风险但也蕴含着机遇。
VIX指数（白线）始终稳定在20下方，结合标普500过去1个月的实际波动率低至6%接近年内最低水平，因此美股年底季节性的上涨还在延续。低波动率即低风险，这是机构投资者以及自动交易程序最喜欢的环境。
黄金连续第二天持平在1790附近，昨天全天的波幅仅为9美元。目前200天均线和RSI都较为平坦，多空双方暂时鸣金收兵。但周线的大阴线似乎难以避免。
XAUUSD H4
短线关注1795一线的初步阻力位，突破后反弹可能延续至1810以及1833附近。但美元走强和加息预期始终是利空黄金的因素。若1780无法提供缓冲，金价恐将有更大幅度的下跌。
WTI原油连续第二天小幅回落，在跌穿7月高点77.17之前，油价还是具备再次上行的可能。下周四OPEC如何调整产量政策来应对美国释放战略原油储备将是决定接下去油价走势的关键。
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