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Analysis
黄金在过去6天涨了近100美元，金价目前超出200天均线4%左右，上次达到这个幅度还是在今年6月的时候，当时最高触及了1917。不过现在金价首先需要攻克的是1868附近趋势线延伸出来的阻力位。多头想要冲击1900需要看到美国的实际利率跌至更深的负值区域。
XAUUSD
相比于美元计价的黄金（截止目前本周累计涨幅2.42%），以欧元（+3.5%）、英镑（3.45%）、澳元（+3.97%）以及日元（+3.04%）计价的黄金本周的表现更为出色。原因很简单，美元的强势冲高让非美货币最近持续承压。
尽管大宗商品价格昨天集体上扬，但商品货币却持续萎靡，加元、澳元和纽元跌至一个月低点。欧元和英镑更是刷新了去年7月以来新低。
美元指数周四突破了95关口。下图显示，指数目前高出5天EMA线的幅度（%）已经接近过去5年均值上方2倍标准差，而这种短期的超买过后通常会伴随均值回归。
尽管短线可能修正已经产生背离的RSI等指标，但目前的主流观点依旧是看好美元的后市。高通胀可能会倒逼美联储提前完成缩表并加息，而如果美国的债务上限问题无法在12月得到解决，届时可能会强化美元的避险属性。
原油昨天基本持平在81.30。OPEC对需求前景的谨慎态度以及投资者对美国释放战略原油储备的担忧让WTI原油暂时无法突破85附近的阻力。但只要能够坚守50天均线一带（77-78）的支撑，整体的上行趋势就没有被破坏。接下去关注美国在面对30年来最高通胀的情况下会采取何种措施来干预原油价格。
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