Analysis
通胀降温引爆美股 美元重挫黄金不为所动
7月CPI同比增速从9.1%降至8.5%，环比从1.3%降至0%；核心CPI同比从6.1%降至5.9%，环比从0.7%降至0.3%。
数据显示通胀开始退烧，令市场稍稍松了口气，但一个月的数据并不能形成趋势。其实仔细观察可以发现，能源价格在7月环比下跌4.6%（其中汽油-7.7%），以一己之力抵消了食品、住房成本、医疗、新车等价格的延续上涨。整体通胀是否能朝着美联储2%的目标持续迈进还存在很大的不确定性，尤其是考虑到劳动力市场仍然非常强劲且工资增速维持在5%以上。
从利率市场的反映来看，对于未来的通胀和加息前景还是比较谨慎的。9月加息75个基点的概率还在40%以上，明年3月的终端利率峰值仍旧在3.6%以上，同时明年50个基点的降息预期也没有改变。各期限的美债收益率（尤其是短端的2年期）的跌幅并不明显。
不过股市和汇市的参与者显然有不同的看法。
美国三大股指昨天强势上涨，纳斯达克100指数更是突破了关键趋势线的压制，从6月低点累计反弹了20%进入了技术性牛市。科技股对通胀和加息预期的变化是最为敏感的。
美元指数遭遇重挫，跌破50天均线后来到通道下轨，显示出外汇交易员押注通胀见顶且FED放缓加息步伐。指数若跌穿该支撑恐将大幅下行。在美元疲弱的情况下，非美货币乘胜追击。其中纽元、澳元涨幅接近2%，欧元和英镑的涨幅在1%左右。
美元指数（USDX）
黄金昨天短暂触及1807（6-7月跌势的61.8%回档位）后收盘跌至1792，今天盘中延续回落，这显示出市场对通胀前景还没有形成一致预期。短线跌宕起伏的走势过后，市场可能需要时间来消化通胀数据的影响并确立新的方向。
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